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Sunday, January 22, 2006

Market Recap
A brutal sell off on Wall Street last Friday took the Dow down by 213 points, crushing the Nasdaq with a 54 point loss and sinking the S&P lower by 23 points. This was the biggest one day sell off since 2003, and the indices closed at or near the lows of the day.  This was a very negative and unexpected turn of events, but as we always say, you have to expect the unexpected and prepare for it if you want to survive in this business. 

Oil $70 a Barrel Again
Oil prices are once again close to $70 a barrel, closing Friday at $68.48. Come Monday morning, we may see it top the $70 mark and continue on to all time highs.  We should not be surprised the way the market buckled at the end of last week considering all the negative factors including:
- oil prices near all time highs,
- Iran refusing to stop their pursuit of building a nuclear bomb,
- Bin Laden threatening more terrorist attacks on the United States,
- the two day crash of the Tokyo stock exchange, and
- the disappointing earnings guidance released from a number of market heavyweights. 
All this news is an awful lot to digest for a market that had been over bought after a hot start to the New Year. 

Remember December?
Back in December, we said that there would be a fresh pot of money put to work in the first couple of weeks in January due to new IRA and 401K money flowing into the market.  New money comes to market in early January every year along with year end bonus money.  This is the January Effect on the market and causes stocks to rise.  Once all that money has been put to work and there are no more buyers, stocks take a dive. It is too early to say if this selling is the start of a vicious decline, but with all the bad news mentioned above, I do not know how stocks can climb consistently. We will continue to do what works, and that is to take only what the market is willing to give and not be greedy by trying to hold out for all the marbles. Sometimes taking the quick profits is best and we will continue to do that until the market proves to us that letting the winners run is a better strategy.   

It's All Gone Already
The selling that took place Friday was enough to erase all of the gains the market made in the rally that took the market up in the first two weeks of 2006.  This relentless sell off has damaged many charts. However, there are still many strong stocks with charts that held up well on Friday.  For instance, our STHQ portfolio still has 4 open positions and all of them are green.  The stocks we are holding were not affected at all by Friday's market massacre, and they look ready to advance higher should the market decide to have a recovery bounce. As you will see in tonight's charts, there is technical damage to the indices. The good news is that both the Nasdaq and S&P are at their respective 50 SMA lines, and this support area could spark a bounce on Monday

Saved By The Sell
To the folks that emailed us last week and asked why we sell stocks with good charts, Friday's market sell off is the reason.  Locking in profits and going to cash protects us from these types of savage down days that would have otherwise wipe out all the gains we have made this year.  Unfortunately, some people who buy and hold or are in mutual funds have just lost what ever gains they had in the first two weeks of 2006.  Therefore, by buying and holding, they are doing nothing more than just spinning their wheels.  On the other hand, by actively trading we have managed to keep all the gains we have made in 2006 and did not become victims of the carnage that many were subject to on Friday.
 
Today's Bonus Chart: CRDN
Click the following link to view today's bonus chart in the Public Chart lists:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ... (first chart)







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