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Monday, December 26, 2005
Market Recap
The final day of trading before the Christmas break on Friday was as quiet as a trading day could be. Most left early and volume was anemic as expected. Trading was flat and dull for the most part with just a few selective stocks making good gains. Some of the nice gainers were bulletin stocks: NMGC, GROW, and RACK. The Dow was down 6 points, The NASDAQ gained 3 points and the S&P was up a fraction.
We Got Crammered Again
Once again the loud mouth from BSNBC mentioned one of our bulletin stocks after hours on Friday, and it immediately started to shoot up on his mention. That stock was RACK, a stock we showed the chart of on Thursday night and mentioned a couple of times in our pre-market day trade watch list as a possible mover. If you are in the stocks before he mentions them, that's great but after a mention, there is no way to get in unless you pay up because the show is pre-recorded two hours before it airs. This is why Level 2 will show the stock up $2 or $3 before he even mentions it. People in the know (his hedge fund buddies) and the callers that call in listen to the show live as it is being recorded while they are waiting to talk to him. I am sure while they are waiting they are placing a buy order for the stocks he talks about in the first few minutes of his show, like RACK on Friday. It does not take much volume to move a stock up after hours. If you are lucky enough to get through, you will have advanced notice of what stock he will mention. Probably worth the wait, although I question the legality of it.
The mere mention of the stock on his show constitutes the end of a great run or the damaging of a nice chart set-up because the volatility of the move after his mention wipes out the good set-up. It is impossible for us to keep coming up with new stocks without having this guy mention them after they are placed on our bulletin and pre-market watch lists. It is frustrating to see what that show does to nice charts and good stocks.
This Time We Got RACKed
In the case of RACK (and many others he has mentioned), the chart was set up nicely before he mentioned them. These stocks have quietly moved up and are under the radar, not known by the public. Once mentioned by Mr. Crammit on his show, they are no longer viable plays. Why? Because, once everyone knows about a stock, the party is over. When his herd jumps on the stock, the institutions sell into this rush of buying. Cramer's gullible herd is usually the last ones in and when there is nobody else left to buy, there is no other direction for the stock to go but down. This is why most of his picks tank a day or two after his mention. Everyone who wants in the stock gets in or is already in after he mentions it. This is why his plays do not work and this is why we dread it when he mentions a bulletin stock. He has also ruined a few nice charts of stocks we have had on our bulletin by recommending a “sell, sell, sell”. This of course tanks the stocks and damages the chart from a technical stand point. Sometimes the charts becomes so damaged they need to be removed from our list because of the gap down and long red bars they form at the open the next day.
The Market is Dangerous because…
We do not want to be critical of CNBC and the material they are giving to the public, but we just do not see how what they are doing with Mad money can be called responsible journalism. For our purposes at STHQ, the show is affecting the performance of the stocks we are finding for our members before he mentions them. By mentioning as many as 50 stocks in a single hour, Cramer is bound to mention some that are on our bulletin. Once mentioned, they become so volatile in both directions, it is impossible to get a good swing trade out of them.
It is a scary thought to be holding a stock over night, knowing that there is a chance your stock could be mentioned on a whim in a negative way and then having literally millions of people watching become sellers on his very word. What is this market coming to when people will invest or sell a stock because one guy presses a button that makes a silly noise and an annotated bull or bear graphic flies across the TV screen? This insane way many people are getting their investment advice from this one man has diminished the value of Technical Analysis. He can ruin an otherwise excellent chart set-up with a mere mention of a stock. The reason this market is dangerous is because millions of people are watching his show. When millions of people depend on one person to tell them when to buy and sell a stock, well, that's dangerous. Come on FOX, where's the FOX Financial Channel? BSNBC has become criminal. We need a change. This would make a good “talking points memo” for the O'Riley Factor. I think I'll send Bill an email!
Stockcharts Listing
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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
Please take a moment to read the "How To Use The Bulletin" link at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you understand how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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