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Tuesday, December 20, 2005
Market Recap
It's just not going to happen is it? Santa Claus has left the building, or did ever even show up? If there was a Santa Claus rally, it came a little early this year in November. The market just keeps drifting lower as the Bears seem to want to take control, and the Bulls do not seem to want to put up even half a battle. The Bulls were in control and could have taken this market much higher with a breakout of the basing patterns we showed a couple nights ago in the charts. Instead, the Bulls have acted like a wimp a school yard running to the teacher for protection. The Dow was down again today by 30 points, the Nasdaq and S&P traded down a fraction each. Someone needs to pull the starter cord on this market soon and let her rip right through the Bears, running them out of town for a few weeks.
New Bulletin Strategy
For the remainder of the year and possibly into January we will be looking to take positions in stocks with high volume break-outs from resistance. There may be a few short plays that drop through support as well, although this would not be our favorite way to trade at this point. Any position that fails will be exited quickly at the entry point or within 1% or so. Today for example, PALM would have been an entry of this type. It broke the $30.00 resistance on high volume and the stop would have been at the LOD for a 1% risk. We will only look for setups with that kind of risk/reward. We will only enter with volume. Every stock in the bulletin will have a buy point so you can be ready to act and not have to wait for the alert if you so choose to trade prior to getting an alert. This means that failed breakouts could end up being day trades. We would rather not trade this way, but the market is not giving us anything else to trade so we will try this style for the next couple of weeks. Even pullback entries are not working. Rather than sitting around and doing nothing, we will try this style of trading. We are looking for the big breakouts with very tight stops if they should fail. This is more of the style we had in 2003 but that year was much easier because our breakout plays did not fail. We were rarely stopped out and many times we got out much too early because when they broke out, they kept running. Unfortunately that type of market has not been present this year. This will result in fewer stocks on the bulletin for now until we see how this style will work.
Four Remaining Open Positions
The plan for the remaining four positions in the portfolio is to sell them next Friday, the last trading day of the year. Unless something drastically changes, that will be the planned date of sale. We will let you all know now so you can plan accordingly if you happen to still own them. We hope you do not and we are sorry if you do. We will start the new year with a brand new portfolio with 100% cash. Overall, this year was a very good year in a flat market. We should be up nearly 25% when all our positions are closed, not bad while the overall market is flat to slightly positive for the year so far. 2006 will be our fourth year in business. We have beaten the market our first three years convincingly and we expect to beat the market again in 2006 no matter what the market throws at us. Including this year's performance, our performance since inception in June of 2003 is just under 500%. Not bad for two and a half years' work. Here's to another good year of STHQ trading in 2006!
Holiday greetings from STHQ
From all of us at STHQ, we hope you all have a wonderful holiday season with your family and friends. We would like to wish all our members a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. May 2006 be a great year for you and your loved ones. Please remember those that are less fortunate; if you can, please support your local Toys for Tot's organization so that a child or two can have a gift under the tree this year. They will not know who gave it to them but I will guarantee that their face will light up when they open their gift. Just knowing that makes it worth giving. God bless all of you and your loved ones.
Long Term Portfolio Closed
We have made the decision to do away with our long term portfolio as of Dec 31st 2005. This portfolio came about by request from members who wanted some longer term trades because they were not short term traders. These members are no longer with us and we see no need to keep this portfolio open when our primary trading style is short term. Overall, the portfolio was a success. There were a total of 9 positions traded with 10% of portfolio value in each trade. 5 positions were closed 4 winners and 1 loser. There are 4 positions still open, 1 winner, 2 losers and 1 flat. Even if all the positions were closed today, the portfolio would be up 11% since its inception. We feel the portfolio serves no practical purpose and therefore we have made the decision to remove the long term portfolio.
Stockcharts Listing
Please vote for us once a day at Stockcharts.com.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
Thank-you for voting!
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
Please take a moment to read the "How To Use The Bulletin" link at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you understand how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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