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Monday, December 12, 2005
Market Recap
The market is on hold. Tomorrow the FOMC will let us know their decision on interest rates and their statement following the decision on policy directives going forward. Not many participants wanted any part of going long ahead of that announcement tomorrow. As a result, the head fake open happened as we thought was possible and mentioned in the pre-market alert. Stocks started the day higher but sold off mid-day. Most stocks that were up big at the open faltered later in the day. However, the indices did attempt to make some of those gains back late in the last hour. The result was a mixed market with the Dow down 11 points, the Nasdaq up 4 points and the S&P gained 1 point. The Fed will raise rates tomorrow for sure but I think once they are out of the way, the market will be able to rally into year end.
Gold Rush
Gold is up near a 25 year high, oil is creeping back up over $60 a barrel, and recently the dollar has been falling. With all this, the Markets have not shown any sign of falling. Last week there was a report on the housing market and how it could have the potential to put some 800,000 workers out of work. Everyone from construction to finance could be affected if there is a down turn in the housing market. The housing stocks are forecasting this gloom and doom with their recent declines. But still, even with these factors, the stock market continues to be resilient. It is not all bad news. There have been recent economic reports that have shown the economy to be in good shape. So what does it all mean?
Gold has always been one of those things that people flock to in times of trouble. They see gold as something they can trust. Something they can put money into and then not have to worry. Gold is supposed to be a safe haven. So, there are some market professionals that will lead you to believe that when gold is going up, it is time to flee stocks. Well, that is not working. Gold is up and could go much higher, some predict to $600 an ounce. Yet stocks are not dropping. In fact, two of the big three indices have recently made four year highs. All the while gold has been moving higher, stocks have shown strength since bottoming in October.
Black Gold
Oil has slowly crept back up to $60 a barrel due to the recent cold temperatures across the U.S. This has production demand for heating oil on the rise, while the average temperatures are falling. Oil prices are currently being driving higher by nothing more than supply and demand. As the temperatures begin to moderate, oil prices should settle down again. If there is another huge dip in the temperatures, we should expect a subsequent rise in oil prices. As a result of oil prices rising, our oil stocks mentioned before VLO, UPL, XTO and FTO are on the move again. These former market leaders are trying to lead again.
The Dollar
The U.S. dollar has been on the rise in recent months but has since come down slightly. This drop could be in part due to rising oil costs. The dollar is a fickle instrument and can be affected not only by tangible price fluctuations, but also by geo-political issues.
Housing Bubble or Babble?
Yes, there is no doubt that the housing market is cooling off in some over inflated areas of the country. Some segments of the housing market are cooling more than others, just as there were pockets that saw explosive growth, while others markets grew very little. There are regional housing bubbles, but there is no national housing bubble. Some areas like Southern California, the Northeast and selective cities such as Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco and a few others have slowed down, but these were the areas where prices increased the most over the last couple of years.
The slowdown is not a country-wide problem. Housing is still very robust in many areas of the country. Even in the so called “bubble” cities, an outright crash or bursting of the so-called bubble is doubtful. I think those projected job losses are likely a worst case scenario. I cannot see 800,000 people losing their jobs due to a soft housing market. I question the validity of these types of reports and wonder what their agenda is for reporting such numbers. Regardless of what we are hearing in the news about the “housing bubble”, housing stocks are weak and getting weaker. These stocks may be good short candidates if the Fed policy statement does not change tomorrow.
Stockcharts Listing
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
Please take a moment to read the "How To Use The Bulletin" link at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you understand how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. |
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