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Sunday, December 11, 2005
Market Recap
On Friday, the Dow was up 23 points, the Nasdaq gained 10 points, and the S&P gained 3 points. For the week, the Dow declined 100 points while the Nasdaq fell 17 points and the S&P lost 8 points. This was not a bad decline considering how overbought the market was. The market is stubbornly trying to fight off the bears, and it is winning so far. It is a positive sign when heavy selling does not appear when markets are overbought. Having said that, stocks failed to follow through higher after the Nasdaq and S&P broke into new 52 week highs on a week with very upbeat economic news releases. This brings mixed signals but this is often the case when markets on in a consolidation phase.
Energy, Oil and Semiconductors
Due to speculation of a colder than expected winter, oil prices moved higher and this resulted in the energy and oil related stocks moving back up into resistance levels. Some of these stocks are forming nice basing patterns and should move higher. Like we said before when this leading group was falling, we thought that it would be only a matter of time before they started back up again. I would not be surprised if these stocks made new highs again soon. Never count a leader out the first time they get knocked to the floor - they normally get up and come roaring back to test their highs at some point in the near future.
Meanwhile semiconductor stocks (SOX) lagged last week after that group, like the Nasdaq and S&P, failed to follow through on their breakout into new 52 week highs. If the selling volume were heavier, we would be more concerned that we may have a double top. However in bull markets, stocks and indices often come back to re-test their prior breakout points, and we could be in this phase now.
Market Outlook
The indices' current consolidation period may need more time, but the seasonal trend has historically been up and that favors being on the long side of the market. Remember, we want to trade when the odds are in our favor and fighting the trend lessens the odds we will be on the correct side of the trade. With all the great economic news coming out, the Fed raising rates again Tuesday (already priced in), seasonal trends in play, and a market in a consolidation base pattern, there seems to be a lack of downside catalysts.
We still believe the stage is set for another move higher in the last three weeks of 2005. With the FOMC meeting coming up on Tuesday, options expiration on Friday, and more economic data being released this week, it could be volatile. The week after options expire is when I think the Santa Clause rally begins. If all goes well, all three major indices will close out 2005 at the highs of the year on the last trading day in December.
Stockcharts Listing
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
Please take a moment to read the "How To Use The Bulletin" link at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you understand how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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