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Thursday, December 01, 2005
Market Recap
The Bulls roared into December with a massive rally on this first trading day of a traditionally good month for the markets. Suddenly all three indices are nearing there 52 week highs again just that quickly. Sometimes things work out perfectly, and this week we could not have called it better if it were a script. The three day market rest and subsequent rally played out perfectly this week. Last week, we ended the week saying the market needed a pullback and it would probably come this week. The pullback occurred Monday through Wednesday, and last night in our commentary we said “now it is time to start the engines again”. Somebody woke up the bulls and those engines started early this morning and kept racing all day. The Dow rallied for 106 points while the Nasdaq had a super gain of 34 points and the S&P was up 15 points.
Those trend lines that were broken to the downside on the Dow and S&P quickly repaired themselves today and that will happen fast in a bull market. They take them down below support to tease the bears and then blow them out of the water with a big rally the very next day. These trend line breaks also shake out all the weak holders who sold yesterday when they saw this line give way. This scenario played out perfectly today. There was no follow through selling and as per the pre-market alert, there seldom is during bull markets.
It was a super day for our bulletin stocks and for stocks on our pre-market day trade watch list as well. GOOG, ESRX, HANS, THOR, AAPL, MFLX, HOLX, AMED, AKAM, CUTR, FTO, SBAC, TIE and WIRE were some of the better movers from the Bulletin and pre-market reports.
Oh no, The Fed Again
It is ‘Fed Watch' time once again. They've got a meeting coming up in December and one in January, the last meeting that Mr. Greenspan will be presiding over. It is also the last time that he will have to raise interest rates. The easy money says rates are going up and more strength was given to that argument with the latest GDP numbers.
The GDP rose by 4.3% in the 3rd quarter of this year. That is up dramatically from the 2nd quarter growth. Economists are pointing out that these numbers happened in spite of the hurricanes. In fact, the hurricanes may have actually helped fuel some of that growth. Money was spent in preparation of the hurricanes coming ashore and a lot more has been spent after the fact in the clean up efforts. Forth quarter numbers should come in strong as well, attributed by some of the rebuilding that is now taking place.
I'll take a Little Green but Please Hold the Span
The growth is great to see. A healthy economy has been floating just beneath the surface, and is poised to break out at some point. The only problem I see with the growth is the Fed. They are hungry to get rates up over 5%. I think they will increase rates again in December. After that we will have to see what the new Fed chief decides. I would love to see a period where rates were left alone. Give the markets and the economy a chance to really digest the numbers and determine the real impact these rate hikes have had.
2006 could be a great year for stocks. Strong growth and low inflation risks could really fuel the stock market in the coming year. With the new Fed chief in place soon, we could be in store for a lot more green next year and for once, we will not have the ‘span' with it.
Stockcharts Listing
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
Please take a moment to read the "How To Use The Bulletin" link at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you understand how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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