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Sunday, November 06, 2005
Market Recap
Well the bears did their best to slow down the markets on Friday but to no avail. After being in negative territory for most of the day, the market battled back with a surge of buying in the last half hour and powered forward into the green. The Dow closed up 8 points, the Nasdaq gained 9 points, and the S&P traded flat for the day. For the week, the indices were up 127, 79, and 21 points respectively. This rally with volume was very impressive and stocks traded with upward bias, pounding the bears into submission. By the end of the week, the bears were battered and beaten to a pulp. It was a broad based rally with many sectors doing well including the internet sector (see chart tonight), semiconductors, and bio-techs. Even the battered retail sector got a tremendous bounce as the seasonal shopping weeks before the holidays are just beginning.
Six Months Out
After avoiding an October meltdown, stocks are now in bull mode as investors and traders anticipate a pre-holiday rally. The volume last week indicates that many mutual fund managers are getting back in the game and starting to put some money to work once again. It looks as though investor sentiment has turned bullish again even though very little has changed fundamentally. Earnings have been very good for the most part and they were expected to be good. The economy is moving along and good economic numbers released lately have been better than expected.
There are still obstacles in the way such as the Federal Reserve and their seemingly pre-planned rate hike schedule but the market may be anticipating the end of that cycle six months from now. As we know, the market always seems to trade on future events and acts in advance of the news. By the time the rate hikes do come to an end, the market will have already moved on that old news and will be acting on the next catalysts or obstacle. In other words, when the rate hikes end, this misinformed average investor will believe the market will explode upward. But that move will have already happened in anticipation and instead we could have a “sell the news” scenario.
Buy any and all Pullbacks
The recent rally has moved our tracking oscillators into a short term overbought situation so do not be surprised to see a modest pullback soon. But instead of shorting this rally, we feel the market is now in a “buy the dip” mode. We should be buying any and all pullbacks, especially in the leading stocks. If you have any questions on what we consider to be the leading stocks, you can check out our pre-market updates over the last couple of weeks. Stocks listed on these updates will for the most part be the leaders because these are all we need to concentrate on for day trades. They will also make for super swing trades when the market goes full fledged bull and hopefully that will be soon. For now, our bias is to the upside and should remain that way through the next few months. History shows that it certainly isn't in the best interest of the bears to try and fight the momentum of a year end rally. Never get in the way of a moving train, if you do, you are sure to get crushed.
Stockcharts listing
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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. |
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