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Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Market Recap
The bleeding continues on Wall Street as stocks slowly drifted south again today for the 7th consecutive day for the Nasdaq.  The S&P has been down 7 out of the last 8 days and it has been down 6 out of the last 8 for the Dow.  The Dow lost 36 points, the S&P lost 7 points while the Nasdaq continued to take the brunt of the selling, losing another 23 points.  There has been wholesale selling across the board in all market sectors but there is clearly more selling in the tech heavy Nasdaq.  People are running for the exits and they cannot get there fast enough. 

The Royal Flush
A “Royal Flush” is a great hand for a card player but when the market has a “Royal Flush”, the majority of stock traders do not like it.  Unless of course they are short the market. The market has had a “Royal Flush” (meaning they are flushing stocks down the toilet) in the first week of the 4th quarter of trading.  Some minor strength toward the end of the day today may be the first sign of a long over due bounce.  The market finished well off its lows and with the Nasdaq down 7 days in a row, the 8th day in any market correction has a tendency to be an up day, for this reason, we did not open any short positions today. We mentioned on Sunday that markets usually tend to bottom in October and it looks like this market is trying to do that again this year. 

VIX Getting Close
The VIX is near a six month high tonight, closing above 16 but still not at levels where market bottoms have occurred.  We could very well bounce tomorrow but the way the market has drifted down the past few days, it has not showed any sign of a panic capitulation bottom we need to see to have confidence in any bounce we may have.  I would love to see a big down day, maybe 200 or so points on the Dow to take it down to the 10,000 level and shoot the VIX up to a panic reading of above 20.  A drop of the Nasdaq to below 2000 on an intra day basis would be enough to bring fear to the weakest of bulls and have them throw in the towel.  Then, before the close, rally back up to close above 2000.  This would be our signal to go long.  A close below 2000 and 10000 and all bets are off. 

Bulletin Facelift
We have not given up hope on the Bull yet, but the market is going to have a hard time challenging new highs before the end of the year.  There is a lot of chart resistance ahead, plus many economic factors in the way of advancing stock prices.  I still think a bottom will form this month, much like the way I have described above and this is probably the only way we are going to be able to make any money on the long side.  We will have to time the bounce correctly and get out with quick profits as rallies run back up into resistance.  The days of nice chart set-ups to play breakouts are gone for at least a couple of months in my opinion. 

We have added more shorts to our watch list and done away with more longs tonight so the Bulletin has somewhat of a small facelift.  We are hesitant to take any new short positions at this time because we are bound to have a few up days soon, as early as tomorrow.  But if the market rallies on weak volume, this will be an excellent chance to pick up some short positions into resistance levels.  

18 Inning Marathon
Did anyone catch the baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves last weekend?  18 innings and 6 hours later, the game was finally won.  Both teams hung in there and kept fighting, refusing to give up.  It was winner take all and no tomorrow for the loser, every player on both benches were use and they played their hearts out.  
 
That scenario is very much like trading in these types of market conditions.  We have to get out there day after day and look for a ‘hit'.  We are not going to get one handed to us in this market.  It means day after day of looking at charts, watching for entries and getting our timing right.  Buying stocks is a lot like a batter at the plate.  Some swing at every pitch that comes along.  Some are fussy and only swing at pitches in the strike zone.  The batter that swings at bad pitches reduces his chances greatly of getting a hit.  The ones who are selective and wait for their pitch have a better chance at getting the big hit and most often have better batting averages.  You can relate this to stock trading as well.  The Trader who trades everything that comes along will probably not do very well.  The trader that is selective and waits for the perfect play in the zone (a stock with a nice chart set-up) has a much better chance of being successful.  I am saying this because, I think it is worth repeating.  There is a time to be in the market and a time to be out.  We are not at a time where being in the market makes the best sense.  We need to be selective in our trading and right now, the market is just like a pitcher who cannot throw strikes; there is nothing for us hitters to offer at.  
 
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STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past. 

Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin.  To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker.  Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed.  It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings.   You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles. 
http://www.earnings.com
 
For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. 
 








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