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Tuesday, October 11, 2005
Market Recap
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting were released today and the market had a hard time digesting the information. The initial reaction was to sell, but after further review, buyers decided to step in and the market tried to rally. The Dow spent most of the day in positive territory until some final hour selling took it down from being up over 50 points mid day. It closed up 14 points but it was the only index to finish green today. The Nasdaq continued to slide, losing 18 points again and is now very close to the 2050 support level we thought we could see once it failed to hold 2100 support. The S&P lost another 3 points today and has now fallen below its rising trend line from a year ago. This is not good news and we have the chart updates on these big three indices tonight.
The markets continue to wonder aimlessly here with the path of least resistance being down. Although a bounce is due, I would not put a lot of weight into the next rally when it comes. Use it to get long on strong stocks for some very short term quick pops and lock in those profits while taking new short positions on weak stocks into the strength.
Japanese Candlesticks
Charts of stocks, futures, indices, or any item that changes price over time can be drawn in a variety of ways. Line charts and bar charts are a couple of common ways. Japanese candlestick charts are another popular way of charting.
The main difference between Japanese candlestick analysis and Bar chart analysis is that the Japanese candlesticks place the highest importance on the relationship between the open and close of the same period, while bar charts place the importance on the close as it relates to the prior period's close. The same data that are available on a candlestick chart is available on a bar chart however; it is difficult to see quickly and requires more study.
The candlesticks color each bar based on whether it closed above its open (green), or below its open (red) so it is easy to tell who won the battle on that bar for that particular time frame. By winning the battle, we mean the bulls or the bears. Note that a candle may be closing under the prior candle and still be green, if it closed above its open. This could happen if the stock gapped down at the open and then recovered and closed above that opening price. With bar charts, as long as the stock closes higher than the prior day's close, it is a positive. However, according to the Japanese view, this is not necessarily a positive development. If on an up day, the stock closes below its open, the Japanese candle stick would regard it as negative.
The high and low of the day are called "tails” and they stick out above or below the colored body. These are also called "wicks” as in the wick of a candle. A long tail at the top of the candle shows the bears were able to move the stock significantly, as the stock closed well off its high. A long tail at the bottom of the candle shows the bulls were in control and were able to move the stock back up significantly, as the stock closed well off its low.
The different shapes and colors that these candlesticks form can give short term clues and accurately predict the direction the stock may take the next day. There are many types of candles, too many to list in this commentary. Also, a variety of different shaped candles can make up other bullish or bearish patterns and these patterns also have names. For instance, a combination of 3 candles in a 3 day period could result in a bullish or bearish pattern when combined and these patterns will have names of their own. From my experience, I have found that candlestick charting is much more accurate in the short term as opposed to predicting long term direction of stock price movement. Candle stick charts are very useful for day trading.
Stockcharts listing
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STHQ Chart Index - If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. |
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