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Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Market Recap
 I don't know about you but I am “Fed Up”.  The relentless rate hikes by the Fed continued today as they decided to raise interest rates by another .25 basis points.  That was not that much of a surprise but not changing the language from “measured pace” was very surprising, at least for me and obviously the market did not like that stance either.  The DOW lost 76 points, the Nasdaq fell 14 points and the S&P was down 9 points. 

11 Consecutive Rate Hikes
 What can you say? The Fed is on a relentless course to ruin this economy.  What would it have hurt to pause for one meeting? Would that have caused wide spread, out of control inflation in this economy? I do not think so.  I am not surprised at this move, after all, I said yesterday that I thought they would raise again.  I am more disappointed than surprised.  I was hoping that I would be wrong.  We do not need another rate hike right now.  I am no economist but everything that I am seeing does not warrant a rate hike now, especially in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and another possible hurricane on the way this week. 

The Fed Just Will not Go Away
 It is unfortunate that Mr. Greenspan lives in his own little world and apparently has no knowledge of what happens on the rest of the planet.  The markets would have taken the interest rate hike in stride, if not for comments from the Fed indicating that they may continue to raise rates.  Are you kidding me? Continue with hikes? This is just plain idiotic.  The Fed also stated that Hurricane Katrina would not derail economic growth over the long term.  It may not derail it but he cannot deny that Katrina has been a huge setback to economic growth for millions. I guess he can deny it, he raised rates again.  I am uncertain of how the Fed could have missed this one
 
 The Fed has been hell-bent on getting rates back up above 4%, and it does not look like they are going to stop until we get there.  In fact, they want to get rates up to around 4.5% by the time they are done.  Fortunately for all of us, Greenspan is set to retire in January.  His last meeting will be in November and it would not surprise me if they raised by .50 to get it all done before the new chairman takes over.  Let's hope that we get someone in the lead Fed role who understands that you cannot rebuild and grow when you keep tightening the supply of money. 

Programmed Increases
 We have been arguing for several months that the Fed needs to pause and consider the effects of the previous rate increases.  The Fed is not allowing the markets to fully adjust to the rate increases before they go and increase them again.  These so called ‘marked' increases really do not seem to be “marked”.  They are nothing more than a programmed increase that is not considering the true market conditions or effects. 
 
 The Fed is making it harder to borrow money, this hurts the consumer and especially those trying to get their lives back together after Katrina.  Families are hurting and communities are hurting and yet the Fed feels that increases in interest rates are going to somehow make things better for them.  Let's hope that the Fed knows something we don't! All I can say is it is time for Greenspan to retire.  His retirement cannot come soon enough.  He has over stayed his welcome, in my opinion. 

Timely Move to Cash
 There are many charts that have been damaged because of today's market action so there are no charts to show you tonight.  It is always better to go to cash ahead of some news that may surprise the market.  The market was surprised today and did not like what it heard from the Fed.  Our move to cash yesterday was very timely.  Now we need to evaluate when we should get back in long or if we should take some short positions.  We will need a day to see how the market reacts tomorrow after digesting this move today.  No need to rush to trade. Cash is king for now.

STHQ Chart Index
 If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past. 

 For New Members
 For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. 

Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin.  To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker.  Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed.  It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings.   You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles. 
http://www.earnings.com

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