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Monday, September 19, 2005
Market Recap
Fears of another possible Hurricane (“Rita”) hitting the Gulf caused crude oil to move up $4.39 today, closing above $67 again. This caused many oil and energy stocks to be on the rebound after a brief slide and also caused sellers to drive the indices down ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow. The DOW fell 84 points, the NASDAQ got a 15 point haircut and the S&P lost 7 points. Oil stocks were on the rise and tacked on some very good gains with bounces off support areas. Stocks like VLO, KMG, SWN, FTO, TSO, MRO, APA APC and many more in the group, were very strong today with oil prices spiking up in one of the largest single day moves in oil we have seen.
We lightened up on our positions today just to be sure that we are not too heavily weighted before the Fed tomorrow. As we mentioned last night, their decision could surprise the markets and we do not want to be on the wrong side of any surprise so the best position to be in is on the sidelines, with plenty of cash. We can always get back in the market either way, once a direction is confirmed.
Focus on Losing
That may sound strange but allow me to explain. Unsuccessful traders tend to live in a fantasy camp in which they believe that the market is there to provide them with future wealth. They then have difficulty coping with the reality of being wrong at times. When trades do not live up to their expectations, they tend to ignore the situation and reduce themselves to hope. Unfortunately, they will not abandon their original belief that they will still make money holding the stock.
When you hold a loser, you are essentially not accepting responsibility for the trade. The best traders recognize that they were wrong, accept responsibility for the trade, sell the position and move on. It is critical to transition from a mindset that stocks will make you wealthy to a mindset of your “trading method” will make you wealthy over time. Being right or wrong on each individual trade does not matter. You have to be able to move through the adversity of losing trades and hold onto the faith that you will make money in the long run. This is why many individuals find trading so difficult. Some focus too much on the individual trades and do not look at them as just one small trade in a lifetime of trading activity.
As a trader, you must transition from a fearful mindset to a psychological state of confidence. You must believe in yourself and use a strategy that builds confidence by taking bigger profits and smaller losses. The toughest part is continuing to take trades after a string of losing trades, even if they are small. Psychologically, that is where many traders will give up because they are usually too quick in equating consecutive small losers with a system that is not working. What these traders should do is practice trading their system with what they consider a small amount of capital, where they still care about the money but not so much that it will be devastating if they string a few losers in a row.
You may notice that we focus more on the “losing trade” topics in the commentaries. This is because it is those that we must rid ourselves from very quickly. The winners will take care of themselves. It is true that the market can be wrong longer than we can remain solvent. The market is always right, no matter what. We are not stronger, better, or greater than the market and we must respect that or we will be wiped out faster than we can say “Booyaah Jim”.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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