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Sunday, September 11, 2005
Market Recap
This market is on fire right now and Friday was another big day to end a very good week for the bulls. The Dow gained 82 points Friday to cap off a 231 point rally in the shortened four day holiday week. The Nasdaq and S&P both added 9 points on Friday and gained 54 and 23 points for the week respectively. A very solid rally for the markets last week and all of a sudden, the indices are nearing the highs for the year again. This assault on new highs will undoubtedly be a solid resistances area so we must be ready for some possible selling pressure if the market can not break through into these new highs.
It did not take long; just 10 trading days ago these same indices looked like they were ready to collapse and on their way to possibly test the lows of the year. We have updates of the big three indices tonight to remind you of the strong resistance just ahead. These resistance areas are 1245 on the S&P, 10700 on the Dow and 2200 on the Nasdaq.
Both Bulls and Bears Happy
These big market gains have come despite widespread skepticism over the shape of the economy going forward. Energy and oil stocks dominated the markets last week. It seems both Bulls and Bears are happy these days finding stocks to be long or short in this market. Bulls love the strong oil and technology stocks while the bears love the weak retail and transportation stocks.
Fed Priced In?
This recent market rally in my view is just the markets way of pricing in the fact that the Fed will stop raising rates with one last rate hike in September and pause for the rest of the year until the data from the hurricane is reported. If this is the case, do not be surprised if it is a “sell the news” scenario after the next Fed meeting on the 20th of September. If the Fed say they will pause, the logical thing for the market to do is rally. However, we know the market moves in advance of news and when the news finally comes out, it reacts differently than the majority believe it should, given the current news of the day.
Lately, in the last few Fed meetings, their decision has been a non-event with little or no market reaction because the market already priced it in. This month however, I believe the market will react in a big way to the Fed's decision. It may be best to start lightening up on some long positions ahead of that meeting. If all goes well and the market makes new highs for the year, we can always get back in and ride the momentum but until then, we have to be aware that the indices are nearing resistance levels and a pullback is due.
Oil Stocks Going Parabolic
Oil stocks, oil stocks, and more oil stocks. The moves in oil stocks last week was absolutely incredible and they do not look like they want to stop anytime soon. Some of these powerful stocks include VLO, SLB, KMG, HAL, WGR, MRO, TSO, SUN, OXY and FTO just to name a few. This whole group is going parabolic right now and tonight we have some charts of some that are just moving out of consolidation areas.
The Chart Parade
We have another parade of charts to show you tonight. A picture is worth a 1000 words so let's get right to the chart links at the bottom of this page.
STHQ Chart Index - If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts listing
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For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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