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Thursday, September 08, 2005
Market Recap
A slight pullback today which should not have come as a surprise after the run-up the market has had recently. On Tuesday night we mentioned that this pullback would likely come later in the week and we got it today as the Dow was taken down 37 points, the Nasdaq lost 6 points and the S&P gave up 4 points. A batch of late day buying came in and supported this resilient market as it refuses to give the bears their way. All and all, it was not a bad day at all, with a lot of strong stocks holding up very well.
Volume on this pullback today was light so we can expect this to be nothing out of the normal realm of pure profit taking. Stocks, after this brief rest, should continue higher. There continues to be many super looking charts of strong stocks all over the place and today, even with the indices down, there were many stocks on the move. The bulletin looks great, the STHQ portfolio remains filled with strong stocks, and today's day trades were all profitable. The market is acting very well and you should not be afraid to be long providing you protect yourself with the proper stop orders. Tomorrow could be a very nice day for tech stocks and mainly the semiconductor stocks because tonight after the bell, TXN upped their guidance. It is very good news for tech stocks in general when a big bellwether company says things are terrific.
The Mississippi River
The mighty Mississippi could become a mighty large problem for exporters. The harvest season is just getting started and I was not aware until recently that about 60% of various grains (corn, wheat) set for export make their way out of the country via the Mississippi river.
There are 500 million tons of cargo transported each year via the Mississippi River. This great river flows right through the heart of the Hurricane devastated part of the country. River transport is a fairly cost effective way to transport goods. River barges carry many times what other methods of transportation can carry, heading straight down to the port where large cargo ships await their arrival.
We have heard so much from the media about the cost of gas, and the effect on oil refineries and platforms due to this storm. We have not heard much about the wider impact. We mentioned the other night that the effects from the hurricane would be felt far and wide. Now, we are hearing about some of the broader aspects of the economic effect. The government subsidizes many products grown in the US . It helps to keep prices stable, and keeps many smaller farms in business. I will be interested to see what happens to grain prices now that a major exportation artery is in jeopardy. It could be months before the Mississippi is opened back up to 100% capacity.
Fed, Wake up and Smell the Hurricane
It looks as though the Fed is actually considering continuing with their interest rate increases in the next meeting with another .25 basis point hike. Recent comments suggest the Fed will raise this time as planned with a statement following the meeting that will suggest they will not raise again until after all the data from the hurricane is reported and digested. Although I do not agree they should raise, this would make sense given that they should not assume what the damage will be but rather wait for the facts before making a decision. The data they will be looking at in the September 20th meeting will not include Katrina's statistics. Knowing this, we should expect the Fed to raise one more time then take the rest of the year off. I hope this is the case. Get the raises out of the way, let the market know they are finished and the rally into the end of the year should be on.
STHQ Chart Index - If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stock charts listing
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