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Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Market Recap
Traders returned from vacation today on this first day of trading after the Labor Day holiday.  Stocks surged higher with the Dow gaining 142 points while the Nasdaq gained 25 points and the S&P gained 15 points with all these indices closing near the highs of the day.  It was a very nice start to the week, but volume today was less than we expected and this could cause a problem for the bulls later in the week.  Light volume rallies tend to fade away quickly. But having said that, we cannot ignore the positive developments on the charts of these indices, and we have those chart updates for you tonight. 

All indications are pointing to a slowing economy and stocks should not be rising, but they are, and we cannot fight the tape.  My guess is that today's rally was due to some short covering considering the market has had record high short interest lately.  The shorts may have figured, “if Katrina can't take the market down then what will?” Since volume was not heavy today, the buying was most likely short covering.  Also, we have to assume that the market may be factoring in the possibility of the Fed NOT raising rates due to the impact the hurricane is going to have on the economy.  If the market thinks the Fed is done raising rates, then this rally is understandable.  

Katrina, What's Next?
Sometimes we forget or take for granted what all Americans do as a collective effort to help each other and at the same time drive our economy.  We should be thankful for the work that everyone does around us to benefit us all.  Our economy grows on the collective backs of every working American.  Tonight, the weight of Katrina is on every Americans back.  I'm afraid Katrina's effects will be felt far and wide, and for a long, long time to come. 
 
Katrina will affect all areas of our economy.  Costs of just about everything will rise because of supply and demand.  Building materials are the obvious things that will likely go up in cost but there are many other things that will go up as well.  Food costs will rise in part because a number of food based commodities are grown in the southern states that were recently impacted by Katrina.  The Gulf ports are also shut down, and that will have an indirect effect on trade. 
 
I am sure consumer confidence will be impacted by this in a negative way.  Some have said that Katrina will create a number of jobs.  All the clean-up that has to take place and the rebuilding that comes later should create jobs. That is true; however, many more jobs were lost or displaced as a result of Katrina then will be created.  The only silver lining here is the effect Katrina will have on interest rates.  It is obvious to me that Mr. Greenspan should not raise rates again because Katrina will slow the economy enough.  If he and the Fed continue with interest rate increases now, they are simply out of their minds and need to be replaced immediately. We need to see how the economy bounces back from Katrina, without the pressure of rising rates.  It is inconceivable that they would raise rates after this catastrophic disaster but we are talking about Greenspan so who knows?  The market going up after this disaster, in my opinion is telling us the Fed will not raise. We will see. 
 
STHQ Chart Index - If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past. 

Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin.  To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker.  Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed.  It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings.   You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles. 
http://www.earnings.com

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