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Tuesday, August 30, 2005
Market Recap
Crude oil was above $70 at one point in the day but closed just below at $69.46. With oil above $70, stocks slid early in the day as the Dow was down 110 points at one point. Stocks staged a slight rally towards the end of the trading day. When the closing bell rang, the Dow cut its losses in half and was only down 50 points. The Nasdaq lost 8 points and the S&P was down 3 points. Despite the losses in the indices, there are several stocks from our bulletin forging higher like ALO, CPST, MCEL, FWLT, GMXR, LIFC, and SYNM. Also, a few former bulletin stocks that we may have taken off our list too soon were up big today as well, such as a couple of building materials stocks like IPII and BHMC (up because of Hurricane Katrina). Also, former bulletin oil stocks VLO and FTO were up big as well.
Today's action in the market is certainly hard to figure out. I thought the market would finally sell off and break support but it rebounded late in the day and refused to break down. Until the market can commit to a specific direction, we either have to trade less and stay in cash or just play the momentum stocks that are in a strong trend. There are plenty of charts that still look good and we have some of those for you tonight but at the same time, we should always trade in the direction of the overall market. With the market not giving away its hand just yet, remember, if you take any positions in these momentum plays, you must be ready to exit them on a dime if conditions change. We have all been struggling to figure out where the market will go. We all want a trending market for that is really the only way to make consistent money whether it be up or down. At the same time, we must realize that we all see the markets differently depending on our style of trade. For instance, consider the following.
Three Blind Men
A Hindu folktale tells of three blind men encountering an elephant. The first man, feeling the leg of the elephant says “It's a tree." "No, no, it's a snake," says another, feeling the trunk. "No, this must be a house," insists a third, spreading his arms against the bulk of the elephant's body. All three had a different perception of the elephant based on the part they examined, and all three conclusions were wrong. The elephant was more complex than any of the men realized.
A similar tale is told everyday in the stock market. Each market participant has different needs, agendas, histories, perceptions, and sees the market completely differently. As with the three blind men examining the elephant:
The Bear sees the drop as a great vindication of their view and recovery of their short position. The Bull sees the action as a short pullback to add to or enter a long position.
The Day Trader sees the morning gap up as a great short set up, and a gap down as a great opportunity to capitalize on the panic and catch a dead cat bounce for a quick flip. Swing traders see the morning strength as a great exit for their longs or morning weakness to cover their recent shorts and lock in profits.
This is one of the challenges of our market debates; each one of us has a different perspective from which we are examining the same crazy animal. Each of us has a reason to interpret what we see and convince ourselves that we are right. No one is right or wrong but human nature is subjective, and thus leads to the creation of the market whereby both buyer and seller feel that they've been enriched.
STHQ Chart Index - If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stock charts listing
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For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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