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Thursday, August 25, 2005
Market Recap
The story again today was oil as it closed at a new record high again $67.49. Stocks stayed in the green but not by much as it was just another lackluster day of directionless trading. The DOW was higher by 15 points, the NASDAQ gained 5 points and the S&P was up 2 points. The volume was very low and both bulls and bears were disappointed because the market cannot commit to a direction. All three indices are churning near support levels and the bears are waiting for them to give way and collapse, while the bulls are waiting for a bounce off of these over sold levels. Without volume, both will most likely continue to be disappointed in the lack of movement until after Labor Day.
Durable Goods, Not So “Good”
Durable goods orders fell by a large percentage in a most recent measurement. The 4.9% decline reported was much greater than the anticipated 1.5% decline, and was a huge reversal from the 1.9% gain showing in the June numbers. This is not the exactly great news and it could be due to higher fuel costs. These numbers are not only disappointing, they are an ominous sign.
Durable goods are basically ‘big ticket' items. They have an expected life of at least 3 years and typically include vehicles, computers and major appliances. It could be that the latest trend in ‘employee pricing' accelerated vehicle sales up so high that sales could not be sustained and thus the decrease in numbers however there are some other pieces to the durable goods report that would suggest otherwise. Orders for machinery fell by 6.2%, fabricated metal products fell by 4.4%, computers fell by 8.3% and communication equipment fell by 7.1%.
The trouble is the orders for products are falling across the spectrum. If it were tied to one area, one may be able to account for it but this wide spread decline is not something you can pin down to a specific problem. These are signs that perhaps the economy is slowing and we do not know if high oil prices are the cause but it certainly is not helping any. With numbers out like this, continued rate increases are only going to make things worse.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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