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Thursday, August 04, 2005
Market Recap
A brutal sell off today on Wall Street as stocks headed lower, before tomorrows payroll numbers are released. Some traders settled positions ahead of these numbers because the data is likely to cause a big reaction. The DOW lost 87 points today and closed near its low as the selling accelerated into the close. The NASDAQ lost 25 points today and also closed near its low of the day and back below the 2200 level. The S&P lost 9 points today and, too, closed near its low of the day. Interesting enough, both the NASDAQ and the S&P closed right at their respective 10 SMA lines. This is a support level, they could bounce off of it if tomorrow's job numbers are good. This number should move the markets either way and move it big. Expect a good snap back from today's sell off, if the numbers are good. Of course, if they are not so good, we can expect a continuation of today's selling. My guess would be that the numbers will not disappoint the street, after all, all of the other data we have been getting lately has been good.
The Analyst Strikes Again
The analysts strike again. We got shaken out of both KOSP and VLO because the stocks sold off and hit our stops when they were both downgraded by analysts. These downgrades cause the crowd to get scared and sell and then stock falls. This is when the analysts firm can grab some shares on the cheap. We know not to act on analyst actions or with the crowd, but our stops are pre-set before we even make the trade; this is part of a money management plan. We have no control of what the stock price does so to be safe, the stops are in place to prevent big losses. Unfortunately for us, these stocks are back to new all time highs again.
The same thing happened to the home builders stocks that we were in back in March. They got downgraded just after we bought and an ensuing sell off occurred. Of course these stocks also recently made new all time highs. The analysts in these cases are either crooks or they are just not doing their job and have not got a clue about the companies they follow. If they have not got a clue, they should be fired. If they did their job, they would know that the earnings for these companies would be good and there would be no need to downgrade.
The only other reason for a downgrade would be to give the firm that they work for an opportunity to line their pockets before the great earnings are announced. They do this by downgrading ahead of the earnings so that all of the retail investors get scared and then they buy the cheap shares and ride the stock up after great earnings are announced. It is either this or they just do not have a clue about the companies they follow. Which scenario do you believe? These guys get paid far too much not know what is going on in these companies. They know exactly what to expect when the earnings come out. These downgrades serve only one purpose as far as I am concerned. Yes, it is too bad, but Wall Street is corrupt in this way but it always has been this way and I do not expect it will ever change. On Sunday night, we will have a full commentary on analysts. I will attempt to analyze the analyst for you and explain what their real purpose is on Wall Street.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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