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Monday, August 01, 2005
Market Recap
Oil topped $61 a barrel again today on news of the Saudi King having passed away but that did nothing to deter the stock market. Stocks rose again today with much of the same pattern we have seen lately, selling in the morning and then a strong recovery later in the afternoon. The bears just cannot take down this market no matter how much they try. The markets did close off their highs and the Dow lost 17 points but that was well off the lows of the day. The Nasdaq gained 10 points and again ran into the resistance level of 2201 today. When it hit that level, it turned back as it did Friday and for the second day in a row. Maybe the third time will be the charm and get it through for a close above the resistance. If it can close above 2201, that would be a very good sign of higher stock prices to come. There seems to be a clear rotation into the technology heavy Nasdaq, and it showed in today's underlying strength. The RUT gained 3 points and the S&P was up 1 point.
The GDP Numbers
In all the excitement last week, we forgot to mention that the GDP numbers came in lower than expected. This is interesting news to say the least. Alan Greenspan has been going on and on about the strength of the economy and how the Fed needs to continue raising rates to keep inflation in check, yet we see the GDP numbers coming in less than forecasted, and down from the previous quarter. There is evidence for both trains of thought in the numbers. The gross domestic product numbers are the broadest measure of the US economy, and are looked at very carefully by those who want to know the inflation picture. The numbers were forecast to come in with a 3.5% growth rate for the 2nd quarter. They actually came in at 3.4%. This is down from 3.8% in the 1st quarter.
Greenspan has often mentioned a “soft landing”, when discussing the economy. This is the exact reason why we have been saying for some time now that the Fed needs to hold back on any further increases in interest rates. However we know this will not happen because Greenspan tends to over due things. He over did it to the down side when he lowered rates back in 2000. If the Fed continues to play a heavy hand with the economy, that ‘soft landing' is going to leave a dent in economic growth. The Fed meets again this month and I'm sure there will be another .25 point basis hike. My guess is, there will be one more after that and they will be done raising rates this year. When they are done, the markets will be free and clear of any burden of higher rates. I believe we are seeing the market forecast the end of the hikes right now with this strong move up we are seeing.
Keep the High Performance Stocks
Since we are putting 10% in each trade now, we want to remind everyone that just because a stock reaches a buy point does not make the stock a buy. This is especially true when trading with 10% in each position. Volume and lots of it as the stock moves through the buy point is critical. With 5% positions, we could sometimes be a little early but with 10% in each trade, volume becomes even more important. With a light volume breakout, the stock's chances of failure are higher and the trade will have little chance of success. An explosion of volume when the stock reaches the buy point gives the stock a much higher chance of being the big winner If you do get a high volume breakout and the stock closes at the high of the day on the day of the breakout, hold these big movers. Chances are very good, you will get a large price run-up over time. The stock will consolidate and break out time and time again in a stair step type pattern. In a bull market, you let your winners run and sell those stocks that move slowly and are not performing like they should be. Fire the stocks that do not perform and hire the ones that do. Keep those high performance stocks that are being productive, making your portfolio lots of cash.
STHQ Chart Index - If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings you can either use this link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. |
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