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Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Market Recap
New home sales came out today and were very strong once again. The Federal Reserve also released there beige book report and it too reflected very strong economic news. As a result of these good reports, Wall Street rallied again with late day buying as those who try to continuously pick a top to short this market have to cover their short positions towards the end of each day. These hapless traders just have to try and fight the trend and again they are wrong. Whether it is short covering or institutional buying, anytime you get buying into the close, it is always a very good sign. It was a very strong day for the DOW today as it was the leading index with a 57 point gain. The NASDAQ gained 10 points while the S&P showed a 5 point gain and closed at 4 year highs again. Small cap stocks lagged today as the RUT did not participate in the rally by trading flat for the day.
People are Still Scared
The NASDAQ, Russell 2000 small caps, S&P 500 and several indexes like Biotech, Energy, Housing, Retail and other strong sectors are making new 4 year or even all time highs nearly every day now. They have broken out to the upside and the bull market is back. However, there is still plenty of money on the sidelines. This is because investors from the year 2000 are still scared to get back in. Also, there is a whole new generation of investors that have not yet heard of the stock market and they will become interested only after the market has ran up substantially again. They will hear about the bull market on the cover of Newsweek and on all of the covers of the financial magazines, after the markets have made the major advance. By then it will be too late. This is the point that the market turns, when everyone knows, that is the signal to sell and go short. Remember, there is always someone who does not know yet. When the last person knows, like in 2000, only then will it be time to exit your long positions but this my friends could be years away.
Just Getting Started
There is plenty of move left in this new bull market, it is just getting started. New leaders are emerging and will make big advances. The market will run in stages like it always has. It will advance in stage 1 and then have a slight pullback in stage 2. Stage 3 will be another major advance, stage 4 will be a correction and finally stage 5, the largest and last advance of the bull market known as the blow off top. In this stage, the masses will enter the markets again after hearing the mania on the news and in the headlines every day.
We could be 2, or even 5 years away from any mania about the stock market. It is during this period, before the mania, that the big money is made. It is made while the majority of the American public is on the sidelines. There is still a lot of cash on the sidelines to be put to work in the market. Little by little it will trickle in and stocks will go up.
The real money is made by catching a bottom in the market. The bottom of the three year bear market was in 2003 and the market has gone up since then and traded flat, forming a beautiful base. It just recently broke out from that base and is on its way up again. The next stop for the NASDAQ is 2500 and that is still 50% below its all time high. There is still plenty of room to run before the double top at 5000 is reached.
There is plenty of resistance along the way and this is where we will get our pullbacks, areas like 2500 and of course the big 3000 will be tough to get over the first time. 2500 and 3000 will be reached in this next bull market and while the minority of investors ride it up, the majority will sit on the sidelines, still scared to get back in, or perhaps, just do not know about the market yet and would not hear about it until they have missed the move. I do not think NASDAQ 5000 will come again anytime soon. It is probably ten years away yet and two or three mini bear markets between now and then. But there will be plenty of money to be made as the NASDAQ attempts to get there. We will have the leading small cap stocks here for you during this next bull run. Please stay with us, the fun is just getting started.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
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