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Sunday, July 17, 2005
Market Recap
The winning streak continues with seven green days in a row now for the NASDAQ and S&P. The S&P made a new 52 week high by gaining 1 point on Friday. The NASDAQ gained 4 points and reached a new high for 2005. The DOW gained 12 points, bringing its winning streak to three days in a row. The RUT ended a three day slide with a gain of less than a point but the important point on the RUT was that it closed Friday with a hammer candle. This means that it was down early and came back and closed strong and many individual stocks did that as well and have formed bullish hammer candles.
Biotech on Fire
Biotech stocks have been absolutely of fire lately. DNA, GENZ, CELG and AMGN just to name a few. The BTK index is now at 3 year highs. A couple of other points we should mention is that the SOX index is at a new high for the year and the VIX index is at a new all time low. There is also a ton of money flowing into mutual funds lately and mutual fund managers need to put this cash to work somewhere. Folks, it is time to get in the market. It is going to be a good rest of the year, in our opinion. All signs point to a bull run and some stocks have been running for awhile. The leaders of this next market move will be the Biotech's, they have already made their presents known that they are a leader. Housing stocks continue to be a leader as many of these formed hammers on Friday and some like TOL reached new 52 week highs. Pharmaceutical stocks are also running rapid with the Biotech's. Energy stocks are resting but will return to new highs shortly. There are a ton of good stocks with super patterns. If you want to speculate with smaller stocks, that is okay, but at least have a few market leaders in your portfolio as well. Get into the leaders, and then you can start to get into some smaller stocks for speculation. Have a mix of both but do have some leaders.
Earnings This Week
It is a big week for earnings releases so be on your toes. I believe earnings will be super for the most part, so holding stocks through earnings may be a prudent way to participate in some good advances. However, as you know, we do not advocate holding through earnings because of the risk associated with major gaps down if the report is not perfect. On Tuesday INTC, YHOO and AMGN will report. These are very important reports. Both the SOX and the BTK have been on fire and are at new highs for the year. These new highs come just before the biggest players in their respective sectors release earnings. This tells me that earnings will be good and the market has projected this by the recent run-up in the SOX and BTK. INTC is of course the biggest company in the SOX index and the AMGN, the biggest in the BTK. The question only becomes, do they sell the news or do the stocks move higher? We do not know, all we do know is that the charts are in super shape and if there is a sell the news scenario, it becomes a buying opportunity for those of us who react to the reaction.
Thursday, MSFT and GOOG report earnings. MSFT can no longer move the market so it does not matter what they report however, I believe their guidance will be very positive for the upcoming couple of quarters. GOOG reports on Thursday as well. Here is the gamble of the year. Like I said, I almost never hold through earnings but I will hold GOOG through earnings on Thursday. I believe that earnings will be super and the stock will do well going forward. Sometimes, you have to take a chance and if we cannot take a chance with the fastest growing company on the face of the earth, then I do not know why anyone would hold anything else through earnings. I am not recommending that you hold through earnings if you own GOOG now. I am just stating for the record that I will be. It must be an individual decision to hold or fold before earnings. This depends on your risk tolerance. Holding GOOG, or any stock, through earnings is very risky but without risk, there cannot be reward.
Proper Sell Stop Placement
By request, tomorrow we start a week long series on proper stop loss placement. There is just too much to cover in one commentary so it will be divided up into 3 or 4 separate commentaries.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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