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Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Market Recap
A mixed market today with the DOW losing 5 points, the NASDAQ gaining 7 points and the S&P gaining 3 points. The market basically traded in a tight range today with virtually no movement on very low volume. This was actually a positive action because the market held up well and did not sell off after the recent run-up. It seems that there is no one willing to sell their shares and lock in some profit. You would think that after a run-up like this that profit taking would be in order.
Higher Stock Prices Ahead
The RUT and NASDAQ have recently broken out and the S&P is almost ready to breakout as well. The S&P is very near four year highs and is ready to breakout above the resistance at 1225. If this level gets taken out on a closing basis, the market is going to run up for a number of months, in my opinion. We may get a slight pullback on the RUT and NASDAQ back to the previous resistance levels, which are now support, but I do not think that we will get any sort of major sell off now that these indexes have broken out. All we need now is for the S&P to join the party and this market is going to head much higher.
Earnings season is here and we expect, for the most part, some great earnings to be announced this quarter. This coupled with the strength on the indexes should propel stocks higher. Even high oil prices are not stalling the stock market. The DOW has been a laggard but that is not unexpected, as mentioned in a previous commentary, that we thought there was a rotation into tech stocks going on. Obviously, with the strength in the NASDAQ lately, our observation was correct.
Higher Oil Prices Ahead Also
Crude oil broke back above $61.00 and then closed at $60.62 today. Every time it pulls back, it powers forward to make new highs. No matter how many times you hear some pundit on TV saying oil is going back to $40.00, you just have to know that it is going higher. I have said it before and I will say it again, $70.00 oil is going to happen and my guess would be sometime before the end of this year. I really do not see how anyone in their right mind could believe that we will see $35.00 oil again this year.
Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Dennis lets us look at the real world ramifications. Oil declined the past few days but as noted above, it is right back up near its all time highs again. When the hurricane moved through, oil platforms in the Gulf were vacated, workers left to be safe on the mainland. I guess there was a delayed reaction to the speculation that a work stoppage would cause a spike in oil. This stoppage could affect the oil inventories although I would think it would be minimal
Dennis was not as costly as previous hurricanes have been. However, this is just one of possibly several hurricanes that could hit the US this year as hurricane season has just begun. Last season, the south was hit by four big hurricanes.
What is one businesses loss is another's gain. Hurricanes cause havoc to industries like insurance and travel but other industries like building materials get a positive boost from all the destruction. Homes take a big hit when a storm rolls through. Home improvement facilities like Home Depot and Lowe's always see a boost in sales in advance of storms, and again when things are over. I hope that the destruction is kept to a minimum. Our prayers go out to anyone affected by the hurricane.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
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