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Monday, June 27, 2005
Market Recap
Oil closed above the $60.00 level today for the first time ever. The market sputtered again with the DOW dropping 4 points, the NASDAQ lost 8 points and the S&P traded flat. After last weeks sell off, some are asking how severe will this sell off be and how long will it continue? That is always a tough question but all we can do is look to the charts for possible answers. A quick review of the charts of the indices indicates that the NASDAQ has dropped through the support level of 2050 and now the next level of support should be the 200 SMA which tonight is 2029. We look for this level to hold and for a bounce to ensue. The next level of support for the S&P should be near 1180. This level has some price support as well as its 50 SMA. Not all is lost yet, although things are certainly not as pretty as they were at the beginning of last week when the NASDAQ was looking like it was going to power through 2100. How quickly things change.
Caution is Advised
On the economic front this week, we will get the oil inventories which should have an impact on crude oil prices. The Federal Reserve also meets this week and may raise rates again. When is it going to end, Mr. Greenspan? All signs of an economic slow down are showing up in pockets of data, yet the Fed remains stubbornly bent on continued rate hikes. The economic slowdown that we suggested could happen with continued rate hikes appears to be happening, only not as fast as we would have thought, considering the constant tightening by the Fed. We urge you to be cautious with your trading this week. We will see what the Fed has in mind later this week. My guess is another rate hike but I think that Greenspan has already over done it.
Let's face it, continued tightening by the Fed into a slowing economy is not going to be good for stocks or the economy. How could it be? Also, we are approaching earnings season again in a few weeks. Warnings, if any, will be coming out before then and in this environment, any type of earnings warning is going to be greeted by Wall Street with a serious gap down for the stocks of companies that warn. Pity the companies who warn of lowered earnings in this market environment. I still believe earnings will be good for the most part this quarter but if the tightening continues, earnings will ultimately slow in the coming quarters due to an economic slow down. With that said, we suggest using patience at this time. There is nothing wrong with sitting on your cash and waiting for attractive chart set-ups with better risk/reward ratios.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
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