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Monday, June 20, 2005
Market Recap
Oil set a new record high today closing at $59.37. The DOW closed down 14 points, ending a 7 day winning streak. The NASDAQ lost 2 points and the S&P hugged the flat line. The resistance levels that I mentioned last week have been a thorn in the side of the markets as they have not been able to get above them. The DOW is above its resistance level of 10600 but is waiting for the NASDAQ and S&P to join the party. They remain close and are aching to break above those levels soon. Volume is on the light side and that could be why they cannot get through resistance. These levels are once again 2100 for the NASDAQ and 1218 for the S&P. We are getting close but not there just yet. Let's see if crude oil can blast through $60 tomorrow.
Leading Sectors
We have talked before about being in the leading stocks in the market. Tonight I have charts of the leading sectors. These charts will show you what the leading sectors are in this market. It is always good to be in the leading stocks within these leading sectors. These leading sectors include HGX, BTK, IXE, IXU and OIX.
Thompson Financial
Thompson Financial came out with a call before the open that stated the estimated earnings forecast for the S&P in the second quarter would be down to 6%. This is down from 13% in the first quarter 2005 and 20% in the forth quarter of 2004. Just when we think earnings power was rising, they come out and tell us that things are slowing down. There is much to think about here with this call. First and foremost, if this call is legitimate (and I question the legitimacy of it, more on that later) Greenspan is way off the mark if he plans to continue to increase interest rates. If earnings are slowing down that means that there is less spending by the consumer. If there is less spending by the consumer, then the economy will slow down. If the economy is slowing down, there is no need to raise rates, in fact, if it slows down too much, rates will have to fall instead of rise to get the pace up to the correct speed again. This is just more data, if true, against the Greenspan case.
Now back to the Thompson call. I find the timing of this announcement very strange. 1.) It comes the day after options expiration and 2.) It comes right at the time when the indices (NASDAQ and S&P) are at critical resistance levels. I am sure that they did not discover this lower earnings research over night. They knew about it before but failed to release it until a time that would benefit Wall Street the most. Now that options expiration is over, stocks are free to fall or rise. In this case, fall. Also, the fact that the NASDAQ is at a resistance point of 2100, might be a good reason to release such data. The smart money could have loaded up short last week recognizing that 2100 is a good area to be short. This call seems ill timed and one that would certainly help whomever shorted into resistance. I personally do not believe the Thompson's research. Earnings are growing not declining. This is just another pawn to use to scare the little guy. In my opinion, the majority of earnings will be good and beat the estimates in this upcoming quarter.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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