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Sunday, June 19, 2005
Market Recap
Oil prices reached an all time high on Friday, surging to $58.50 a barrel but this did nothing to slow stocks down. The DOW was up 44 points and closed above that 10600 resistance level that I mentioned last Thursday. The next resistance level for this index is now 10800. Unfortunately, the S&P and NASDAQ are not above their resistance levels yet so the DOW may be slowed by this drag. The NASDAQ reached its resistance level of 2100 Friday, peaking at 2102 and then fell back to close flat for the day. The S&P closed up 5 points and also breached its resistance level of 1218 intra day, reaching 1219 but could not close above it. The markets are looking very good right now and we could get a surge up if the NASDAQ and S&P can close above the highs of Friday. Friday was options expiration day and last week and we said that GOOG would close above $280 Friday. Friday's close was $280.30, the high of the day. Now that options expiration is over, we could see this stock make a nice run back up to the highs of the year. Stay tuned.
Goldman Sachs vs Morgan Stanley
These two investment firms are going to battle over the price of oil. Back in March, a Goldman Sachs analysts came out with a report stating that oil prices were going to soar and his price target was $100 a barrel. He said the world demand for oil and the growing world economies would take the price of oil up to $100 but gave no time frame for this price target. The day this news came out was the last time that oil was at $58 a barrel. This news spiked oil up at the open to above $58 a barrel and that was the last we saw of oil that high. Oil prices immediately fell and started a correction that saw it fall to under $48 a barrel over the next 2 months.
Last week Morgan Stanley issued a statement saying that they felt that oil prices may be heading for a fall. This is in direct conflict with the statements made by Goldman a couple of months ago. Morgan felt that oil prices had reached a peak and that the world economy is slowing enough that it will weaken the overall demand. They point to China's movement towards coal and other forms of energy as evidence. Right after this bold call oil, instead of falling like we might think it would after this statement, roared to an all time high on Friday reaching $58.50.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley vs. the Public
So who is right? When Goldman released their outrageous prediction, oil went down and is still nowhere near the $100 predicted target. When Morgan's prediction of lower oil prices came out, oil was lower than it is now. It is strange how oil went down for almost 3 months after the Goldman call and now, 3 months later, oil is at record highs after Morgan said oil would fall. Just like Goldman's $100 call and the subsequent fall right after, could this statement by Morgan for oil to go lower be the beginning of a big run-up coming soon?
This could not have been manipulation by Goldman to get short oil, right after they said it would go to $100, could it? This could explain the sudden price decrease, right after the $100 prediction. They make the call, spike the price up, and then get short with oil. No, this just could not be, they would never do that, would they? Now, could Morgan be using their statement to try and drop oil prices enough so that they can get long on the cheap and position themselves for a rise in oil prices? No, they would not do that, would they?
Which one of these firms is right? Since the calls were 3 months apart and if they are manipulating the public, then you can bet that they are both right because Goldman already made their money on their manipulation 3 months ago and now its Morgan's turn. Do you see how it really works? Never mind them, 5 months ago STHQ made a prediction of $70.00 a barrel by the end of 2005. There is no manipulation in our predictions. We are just $12.00 away from that prediction and if it seems a little far fetched, just think about it. Oil has moved up over $10.00 in just over a month so it is certainly possible for it to move another $12 in the next 6 months.
Alan Maxfield, Professional Trader!!!!
STHQ is happy to announce that Alan Maxfield has joined our trading team. What this means is that Alan will be sending trade alerts along with me, Dave. This should benefit our members as they will now get Alan's trades in real time, instead of a message board post. This decision will encompass both styles of trading and will allow us to get even more potential market movers to our members in a timely manner. All trades will be combined into the STHQ trade record. As a result, the bulletin watch list may change drastically over the next week or two so you can expect some rotation in stocks on this list. You will not notice any changes to the alert system, everything will remain the same. You will get the trades from the same source as before, HQ Alert. As a result of this change, we will combine our watch lists into the bulletin, to come up with the best stocks for both styles. Both styles of trading should increase our efficiency and performance, no matter what type of market we are in and ultimately enhance our service to you.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
Please vote for us once a day at stockcharts.com.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
Thank you all for voting.
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