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Thursday, June 16, 2005
Market Recap
The market keeps chugging along with small gains each day but they are adding up fast. The indices are still in trading ranges but are getting ever so close to breaking out and making a move to the upside. The DOW gained 12 points today, while the NASDAQ gained 14 points and the S&P gained 4 points. The key resistance level for the DOW is 10600, for the NASDAQ it is 2100, and for the S&P 1218. If these levels are taken out, I think that the market can make a serious advance. I would want to be 100% long if we close above these levels.
A Look Ahead
There are many charts that are setting up nicely and are ready to advance. Charts of the indices are looking really good as pointed out in last night's charts. Tonight, I have the charts of individual stocks set to move when the NASDAQ breakouts out above 2100 or maybe even before that. Right now, STHQ has 9 open long positions; this represents 45% of the available cash. We have 55% cash that can be put to work. We are so close to resistance that it is hard for me to want to load up because the market could always get turned back when hitting these resistance levels but I have a feeling that the market is going higher and that these levels will be violated soon. Tomorrow is options expiration day and also Friday of a decent week so far. Watch for volatility and possible profit taking to end the week. Next week could be a very good week for the market and stocks, if we get above the resistance. Some of the bulletin stocks I want to buy early next week and even possibly tomorrow are SCUR, LKQX, WOOF, DNA, BMHC, FLML and DGIN. These all have super looking charts.
The PPI and CPI
Oil is up, but did anyone notice what happened with the PPI and CPI numbers? Both were down, and by a pretty significant amount. The PPI, the Producer Price Index, measures prices at a wholesale level. The CPI, the Consumer Price Index, measures what you and I pay at the store. One thing that we have to remember about these numbers is what time frame they are measuring. These are lagging numbers or indicators. They are measuring and reporting data that has already occurred. So both the PPI and CPI reported data that included the dip that we saw in the price of oil approximately one month ago. The 'core' PPI and CPI numbers (these exclude oil and food sectors from their measurements) were both up slightly, but less than expected.
So what does this data mean to us? If the CPI numbers fell due to a drop in oil and gas prices, that reflects a short term positive but we know that the positive action reported happened already in the prior month. Wall Street professionals know how to read the data and how to play it. I want to make sure that you know how to as well. The average investor is sitting there, wondering what they should think about all of this data. If the futures react well, they will of course buy stocks at the open. If the futures react poorly, they are selling stocks in a panic at the open. We all know it is the amateur investors that opens the market. We also know the market itself is a forward looking indicator of the economy, so how can a market react to information that it has already factored in? It cannot and does not. The reaction we see to the pre-opening news is always from the crowd. The professionals just remain calm and react to the crowd's reaction. This is why the futures rarely predict how the market will go after the first ten minutes of trading. This is also why the open, whether up or down, rarely continues in the same direction. There is always a reaction to the initial reaction and that is when the smart money is trading.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
Stockcharts Listing
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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
Thank you all for voting.
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