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Monday, June 06, 2005
Market Recap
A lackluster day for the stock market today as this new trading week started off slow with a very light volume. The DOW squeaked out a 6 point gain, while the NASDAQ gained 4 points and the S&P gained 1 point. Not much excitement at all, unless you own some GOOG shares. That leader was up another $10.00 again today, making a new all time high. The market is hovering just below resistance right now and with summer coming up, we may not get the volume needed to push the indices through that tough resistance.
There are some possible storm clouds on the horizon that we will certainly have to factor into our trading style. We may have to start looking more at stocks pushing into resistance and failing, rather than looking at those stocks to break resistance and move higher. I say this only because shorts can be in season during the summer months and summer is almost here. Oil has been surging again which should not be all that much of a surprise as we enter the summer driving season. Oil had been down into the high $40 range not too long ago. Now all of a sudden, it is starting to push back up into the all time high range. The oil decline was probably just a pullback like the same type of pullback we see in strong stocks. Oil, just like stocks, cannot go straight up. At some point, they must correct and oil corrected into the$40's and now has resumed its uptrend. What we may have been seeing is some profit taking and a general re-positioning within the commodity market. As stocks will take a breather every so often before pushing significantly higher, commodities do the same and I think we just saw that in oil prices recently.
Trade War
Will Wall Street become a victim in a trade war with China? This is going to be something that we should pay close attention to. With recent news that the US economy is stronger than many thought, a trade war is the last thing we need to happen. China has recently scrapped plans to impose restrictions on textile exports. Both the US and the EU are fighting with China over what they see as huge increases in exports coming out of China.
Textiles are mainly going to be clothing related items but China also is a major producer of electronics. Cheap labor in China allows the exports to be priced well under what other countries are able to produce goods at. By flooding a market with inexpensive goods, the net effect is going to drag down other producers or push them from the marketplace all together.
Add to all of this the Chinese Yuan (Chinese dollar). China has kept a constant rate for their currency in comparison to the US dollar and other foreign currencies. Most of the world market has fluctuating currency rates. The US dollar has declined against most of the world's currency, as we have struggled with our economy recently. By pegging their currency at a fixed amount, China can gain an unfair advantage in the world market. It is fixed at what many are calling an undervaluation of the currency. This gives Chinese exports an even greater advantage in the world market.
All economies are intertwined in today's globalization. We all have an effect on each other. A problem in the US is felt around the globe. These new threats need to be considered carefully. If there is no way to resolve the issues between China and most of the "Western" world, the effects will certainly be felt on Wall Street.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
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