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Monday, May 23, 2005
Market Recap
The markets continue their amazing run with big gains again today. The DOW tacked on 51 points, the S&P was up by 5 points, and the NASDAQ gained another 10 points, extending its winning streak to 7 consecutive days. I think that this rally needs a rest and it could very well come tomorrow. A seven day winning streak is just about as long a streak as any indices can get before profit takers start getting the itch to lock in some gains. We could very well see a down day tomorrow for the NASDAQ but probably not a big down day. The FOMC minutes from last months meeting are due out tomorrow and this information could very well move the market. You will recall that it was last months release of these same minutes that got the rally started and caught the short sellers by surprise. Let's see what the Fed has up its sleeve this time. Hopefully they will not leave out anymore important sentences like they did last month. If they do, you can count on BSNBC to let us know two minutes after the closing bell.
Bulletin Stocks
Our long watch list is getting longer and our short watch list is getting shorter. This is the way it should be if we are truly headed for the resumption of the bull market. I would not eliminate the short list yet because the market is overbought and a pullback could ensue at anytime, however, with the recent market action, we have many stocks on the long side breaking out of well formed basing patterns. Being short at this time is playing with fire and fighting the trend. There seems to be a new trend in town and it is “up”. We like “up” because the real big money is made on the long side of the market, which is why I would like to get back to concentrating on just long positions for now. We should be buying the pullbacks of the stronger stocks in the market and I have some new ones to add to our watch list tonight.
Specialist to Public Short Ratio
A couple weeks ago I mentioned that I would like to know what the specialist to public short ratio was because it may give us a clue as to when the market will turn. I have found this information and would like to share this with you tonight. See the chart labeled ‘Ratio' below. Look at the ratio in mid February when the ratio was .84 in favor of the specialists. The NASDAQ was at 2059 and from there it was down hill for that index until the end of April when the ratio was at its lowest level .27 and the public was short .73 more than the specialist. What a coincidence that the NASDAQ hit its low during that week and began to rally and has not stopped since. This chart clearly shows if you are on the side of the specialist, market direction should be in your favor.
STHQ Chart Index
If you go to the chart index in the left side menu, you can review and study charts that we have annotated for each stock listed in the past.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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Earnings Calendar
We have added the earnings link for each stock on the bulletin. To access the link for earnings, you can either use the link below or click the link on the bulletin for the corresponding ticker. Click the online bulletin in the left side menu for access to the earning calendar for each stock listed. It is not recommended to hold a position through earnings. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.earnings.com
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