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Wednesday, April 27, 2005
Market Recap
Once again, we witnessed today how unreliable the futures can be as they were down big after the durable goods orders number was released before the bell. Yes, the market did open lower, and the DOW traded down as much as 72 points, but the markets then made a nice reversal when the oil inventory numbers were released at 10:30 A.M. Once again, the markets follow up a strong down day with a strong up day. When it was all said and done, the NASDAQ finished higher by +3 points, the DOW closed higher by +47 points, and the S&P was up by +4 points. Early on it looked like the markets were going to break their recent pattern of daily reversals from the previous day but the oil inventories was good enough news to keep the bulls interested. The volume was higher on today's bounce than it was on yesterday's sell-off but the volume was still not very spectacular. Along with strong up volume, we also need gains to hold for more than one day or we will continue to bounce between support and resistance like we have the last 2 weeks. Oil dropped over $2.50 a barrel today and is rapidly approaching support at $50.00. If oil can somehow manage to drop below $50, it could very easily be the catalyst the market is looking for to move higher.
I have been mentioning almost daily how the all of the charts of the indices have bear flags on them and today's action did nothing to change those patterns. The DOW and S&P did manage to move back up into their bear flags but they need to move and close above those flags before I am interested in getting long. The NASDAQ closed right at the bottom of its flag and continues to be the weakest of the 3 indices. A break below today's low of 1913 should send the index much lower for the short term. Tomorrow should be another interesting day as the GDP numbers for the first quarter will be release before the bell. Expect the futures to react to the news but do not expect the futures to give us any direction on how the day will end up. They should call the futures what they are, the 30 minute futures.
Big Spenders
http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/25/news/economy/afflu...
It turns out that the wealthy are now starting to feel less confident about the state of the US economy. We said it just the other night, consumers ARE the economy. The slow down in borrowing was a sign for us to follow. Consumers borrow less, so there is less spending going on. Less spending means businesses will sell less products. Fewer products sold means a build up of inventories for which they will have to pay or they will be forced to slow down production. That will in turn lead to less of a need for workers. We all know what that spells out. It is not something we want to see happening.
Now that the wealthy are starting to feel less confident, we really need to start paying attention. The wealthy have gotten that way by being intelligent when it comes to their cash. How many times have we said, "Cash is king"? That is the battle cry of people who are intelligent about wealth. They are either the current wealth holders, or those that the prospects of entering the ranks of the wealthy are very good.
The wealthy know that in order to maintain wealth, you need to hold onto it tightly at times. This means that they would not spend money on those big ticket items, and we have already gone through the spiral effect that this leads to. Confidence and spending go hand in hand. If the wealthy decide to spend less, and it sticks for any period of time, we are in for a rough ride in the markets.
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