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Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Market Recap
 The markets staged a nice rally early in the day after a small gap up but the sellers took control into the close and sent the indexes back down to almost flat for the day. The Nasdaq closed down less than –1 point and just below the 2000 level. The Dow held up a bit better and finished higher by +27 points and the S&P gained +2 points. The good news is even with the late day selling, all 3 indexes managed to stay above their respective 9EMA. The 9EMA is a great tool to use for determining the short-term direction of a stock or index. Despite the lack of gains in the indexes by the close many of our bulletin stocks did very well today: EDGR, APPX, FORD, and LCAV just to name a few. I talked yesterday about how there are plenty of strong stocks to play right now despite the lack of conviction to the upside in the markets. Today was a good example of how the strongest stocks can hold up through late day weakness in the markets. 

 Oil ended up closing slightly lower on the day after bouncing around both higher and lower on the day. The big news for oil today was oil inventories report that was released this morning. The report was mixed as oil and natural gas reserves increased and refined gas reserves decreased. RIMM kicked off the tech earnings season after the bell yesterday and disappointed with lowered guidance. The stock did manage to close well off its lows today though. After hitting a low of $69.20 in after hours it closed just under $73 today. The fact the stock was able to shake off bad earnings news is hopefully a good sign for the markets moving forward. 

A Sirius Threat

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/05/technology/radio_c...

Looks like cell phone providers want to tap into the growing pool of dollars flowing into the satellite radio business.  It is a shot across the bow for XM and Sirius, but I do not think it is a particularly well-aimed shot.  In fact, I am not even sure that the cell phone companies have enough fodder for this cannon.

 Cell phones have certainly come a long way.  It is fun to watch movies from the 80's and see someone walking around with a bag phone.  Those things weighed at least 5 pounds, and were quite bulky.  But, you always see the "cool" guy using one in the movies.

 Today, cell phones are about the size of a deck of cards. Their weight is measured in ounces, and their battery time is measured in hours (talk) and days (standby), rather than in minutes. But is this enough strength to power them into the world of satellite radio? It is a start, but I do not think we are on the right track just yet.

 For all their benefits, cell phones make for impractical radio devices. Can you imagine a world where everyone has music or talk radio coming from his or her hip? I think the battery life is also something that will have to improve dramatically before cell phones can pose any kind of “Sirius” threat.  The satellite stocks will probably take a small hit over this news.  The herd is programmed to think in the here and now.  They will be led to believe that this is happening now, and that there is new competition on the block.

Important Announcement
 There will be no bulletin or commentary the week of Apr 18-21.  It is spring break and I have a trip planned with my family.  This is the first vacation I have had since September 2003.  I will do a bulletin on Sunday Apr 17th and the next bulletin will be the following Sunday Apr 23rd.  I will miss 5 trading days and 4 bulletins but will have stop prices listed in the Sunday bulletin on any positions I leave open.  If those stop prices are reached, Mike Serven will send the sell alerts.

Stockcharts Listing
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For New Members:
For all the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. 

Earnings Calendar
Don't forget to check your short-term holdings and know when those companies are reporting earnings. Holding a stock through earnings is risky and I do not recommend it. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles. 
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/highlight.asp?client...








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