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Monday, March 28, 2005

Market Recap
 The markets tried to start off the week with the makings of a bounce and it looked good for most of the day and the Dow was at one point up over 80 points.  Then, as usual, with an hour left in the trading day, the sellers came in almost exactly at 3 PM and took the markets lower.  The Dow could not close above the 10500 level and the NASDAQ could not close above the 2000 level.  The Dow did manage to gain 42 points, NASDAQ gained 1 point, and the S&P gained 2 points.  This late day selling closed all three of these indices at their lows for the day again.  The NASDAQ closed at 1992, and as of right now, that is exactly its 200 SMA line.  Today's advance decline line was negative and volume was less than average.  This, along with the late day selling we have seen lately is a red flag in my book.  These are warning signs that these small rallies may not be anything to hang your hopes on. 

Trading Getting Tough
 Trading has been tough lately.  For the most part, stocks that breakout are not holding their gains for more than a day.  On Thursday, APCC broke out but today it reversed and lost ground.  Today, CYCL broke out of a nice flag pattern but fell back down and gave back nearly all of its gains from that breakout.  Other stocks on our list that had great charts until today were PACT, KOMG and NCR, just to name a few.  Look at the damage on these charts after today's red bar down.  These stocks were acting super until today, similar to the housing stocks a couple of weeks ago.  They all looked great until a sudden reversal took place.  Also, stocks that pullback are not bouncing like they should.  These are all warning signs that this market is in trouble.  If the market was in good shape, breakouts would run away from most traders and they would be chasing them up.  The breakouts would hold and follow through for days afterward.  Pullbacks in strong stocks would be met with heavy buying; causing bounces off the supports areas. None of this is happening and that should be raising some red flags at your trading desks.  

Looking Ahead
 We are getting the expected minor bounce but it is coming much slower than expected.  The market was over sold and needed this small bounce but I am still not convinced that the bounce will last.  I am hoping the Dow can have another hard sell day of over 100 points to get it down to its 200 SMA. This is the area where I think a major bounce could happen.  If you are short and can not stand the heat of a pop in the market, then you should have tight stops and cover those positions on the first sign of a rally.  Right now, the NASDAQ is the only one if the 3 big indexes that is at or below its 200 SMA.  This is still a Bull market overall until the other two major indices (S&P 500 and Dow) fall below their 200 SMAs. When all three indexes are below this level, I will turn bearish, but for now we will assume there will be a bounce off the 200 SMA on the Dow and S&P when and if they reach those levels.   

OTC Bulletin Recap
 Many of our OTC bb stocks have shot up big after first appearing on our list.  These stocks can be good movers and are a way of making some cash while other markets are not cooperating.  Normally, these stocks trade on their own and could care less what direction the indices are headed. Tonight's charts are dedicated to the OTC bulletin and I have a few charts of some of the big winners so you can visually see when they appeared on our list and where they have since gone.  A lot of these stocks made big moves and have since retraced those moves.  These are very risky and speculative plays that, if timed right, can make you some big cash, however, these are not buy and hold stocks. As you can see by some of the charts, you have to be in and out fast because, most of the time, they come crashing back down as fast as they had moved up. 

For New Members
 For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented. 

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Earnings Calendar
 Do not forget to check your short-term holdings and know when those companies are reporting earnings. Holding a stock through earnings is risky and I do not recommend it. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles. 

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