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Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Market Recap
The stock market slowly continues to deflate today. The Dow closed down 60 points and below the 10750 support that I have been showing in the charts. The NASDAQ closed down 16 points and right at the bottom of the flag shaped channel that I showed in the chart last night. The S&P closed down 9 points and just below the trend indicated in the last chart of the S&P. I will show these charts again tonight so that you can have a picture of what these indices look like after today's market close. There are some patches of the market that are doing well, such as the gaming and retail stocks. These stocks seem to be the market leaders, at least for the short term. Has anyone been following KMRT lately? What a super move. Some other retail stocks that are doing well and look ready to breakout are BEBE, PLCE and AEOS. There are some stocks mentioned in the day trading posts on the message boards lately have really soared. HANS was up again today, as well as CMTL and BYD.
Other excitement in the market was the news that Bernard Ebbers, former CEO of WorldCom, was found guilty today in a federal court on all related charges. He is scheduled for sentencing in June. He will be getting much more time in the pen than Martha did, that is for sure.
Wake up and Smell the Coffee
With fuel costs nearing record territory and oil prices hovering well over $50, there is not much we can do about the energy sector and its impact on consumer spending and confidence. The problem is that these higher costs are now invading another ‘energy' sector. The price of green coffee (beans before they are roasted) has increased roughly 40% since December. The reason is a fear that global production is going to suffer this year and fall short of demand.
Many people would say that business runs on coffee. This is because the majority of business people cannot get started in the morning without a cup of steaming hot coffee. Many do not stop with just one cup either, they sip it all morning. Let's face it; the fuel that keeps many business people running throughout the day is coffee. An increase in the price of raw coffee beans is now being pushed down to the consumer level. Increased prices are a possible sign of inflation. They are also likely to be reflected in consumer confidence numbers. While we already know not to trust the consumer confidence figures, many people still put faith in them. Downturns in confidence can dry up investment dollars. That would not be a good for investing in 2005.
The impact on wallets is also going to translate into an impact on ‘designer' coffee. I would say that people are going to start cutting back on their trips to Starbucks and start brewing their own at home. This one time, high flying stock is already starting to show signs of weakness. Keep an eye on coffee futures, a spike in futures is going to translate into a decline in Starbucks stock. SBUX is the symbol. It is not ready to be shorted yet, but it is on my short watch list. What seems like an isolated event in one sector can often have an impact felt far beyond.
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