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Monday, March 07, 2005
Market Recap
No follow through buying today from Friday's big rally. The volume today was weak as the indices got off to a good start this morning but then faded late in the afternoon. The Dow gave up all of its gains this morning and closed down by a couple of points. The S&P closed up 3 points and the NASDAQ started to try and catch the Dow and S&P with a nice rally up 19 points and more importantly, from a technical stand point, closed above its 50 SMA. This is good news but unfortunately it could not puncture through the resistance level of 2100. This was prior resistance and when it met it today, it promptly turned back. The Dow Transports and Utilities are at new highs along with the Dow and S&P, so things are looking much better for the bulls but the NASDAQ is still in a tough battle and it needs to work through it.
Lead, Follow, or Get out of the Way
With the above mentioned major indexes at new highs, it is time to be long. As mentioned last night and in this mornings pre-market update, the double top on both the Dow and S&P have now been penetrated. This is a powerful formation that most of the time leads to higher stock prices. Now is not the time to be in cash so I put some money to work today. I also mentioned today that I thought we would see a slight pullback to the double top support line and we did get some late selling in the Dow this afternoon. This may be the start of a slight pullback but I would not expect too much of one at this point. I bought some of the market leaders today as they fell back. I bought earlier then planned because they fell a little more after I bought, but I did not want to miss a big market move and today looked good for one as the market started off with some good early gains. The markets are rapidly turning more bullish, and could get away from us if we are not careful. So we are buying the leaders when we see them pull back. When the markets are hot, the strongest stocks always move first. When they pull back on modest volume, it is our chance to get in if we are not in yet.
The NASDAQ was up today due to INTC breaking above $25.00 for the first time in a long while. If you want a tech bellwether in your portfolio, today's breakout should lead this giant higher but not at a rapid pace. It should do well over time, with nice slow steady gains.
A Chart a Day Keeps Your Losses Away
If “an apple a day keeps the doctor away” then for me, it is always been “a chart a day keeps my losses away.”
Whether you are in the very earliest stages of learning Technical Analysis or a seasoned professional, I recommend setting aside a few minutes each trading day to pull up and study a chart (preferably, a stock you have found on your own). Ask yourself what the chart is telling you and what are the indicators predicting the stock will do. Is it a buy or a sell? Print a copy of the chart for future reference and use it to write notes on. You can refer back to this copy several trading sessions later. See if you were able to discern from the chart the true direction of the stock.
I have talked about the “trader's desktop” on several occasions. A trade log is a must to record why you are making a buy/sell decision. This should go on your desktop for sure. Now, add the charts you are studying to the desktop and use it to critique your trades. Call it your lesson plan for the week. Learn the chart and you will understand how to make money, no matter which direction the market is heading.
For New Members
For all of the new members with us, please make sure to read the link “How to use Bulletin” at the bottom of the Bulletin page on the website. It is critical that you know how to use this trading tool before trying to trade the stocks mentioned. The effectiveness of your trades will diminish if you do not completely understand how the information is presented.
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