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Wednesday, March 02, 2005
Market Recap
Volatility was the story again today as the markets continue to see-saw back and forth. Just when it looks like the markets are going to sell-off, they rally up to the highs making us think a breakout is coming then to sell-off and close almost flat for the day. When all was said and done, the NASDAQ finished the day down –3 points, the Dow was lower by –18 points and the S&P closed down less than –1 point. The NASDAQ did manage to move up to its 50MA today but it closed well off its highs and continues to be the weakest of the 3 major indexes. The SOX was the weakness in the NASDAQ as some profit taking took place after yesterdays' upgrades within the sector.
Oil was the spoiler of the party as it closed above $53 a barrel and the chart shows no signs of it slowing down anytime soon. Just when the markets seemed to have priced in $40 a barrel, it now has to figure out what to do with $50 a barrel. It is going to be very difficult for the markets to break into new highs with oil up over $50 and rising. On days like today, we do not have much choice but to wait, you are almost certain to be whipsawed out of your positions when the markets are swinging around like a monkey lost in the trees.
Looking Ahead
I thought today was going to be the day that the markets made their decision but, just when it looks like we are going to get an answer, the markets leave us hanging for another day. You will see in the charts of the indices that I have tonight, that the patterns are tightening up and a commitment in one direction or the other is coming very soon. One thing is for sure, which ever direction it ends up being, the move will be a strong one. You will not want to be on the wrong side of the market on that day. There will be a freight train leaving the station; we just do not know which direction the train will be going yet. All the more reason to be cautious with our trades until the direction is determined. Be prepared because I think that the answer is coming very soon.
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