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Thursday, February 10, 2005
Market Recap
The Nasdaq seemed to be in its own little universe today as the Dow shot up +85 points, while the Nasdaq could not get out of its own way and closed flat. The S&P closed higher by +5 points. It was a bizarre day to say the least. Oil was higher by more than $1.50 a barrel, which usually translates into weakness in the markets. One culprit of the disparity between the Dow and Nasdaq, was Dow component AIG being up almost 5% on the day. I have learned to expect the unexpected and today certainly did not disappoint in that category.
I have mentioned several times recently that the charts of the DOW and S&P are in much better shape than the Nasdaq. Today was more confirmation of how the charts do not lie. Large cap stocks have been leading the way lately when we do see strength. The problem is that most of the large cap stocks are slower moves, so I would rather sit on cash than buy a bunch of blue chip stocks. Blue chip stocks are better for investing, not trading. Small caps and tech stocks are lagging right now and if the Nasdaq does not get moving soon, it will drag the other indexes down with it. The Sox is the one bright spot right now as it is above both its 50 and 200MA. I am worried about the Nasdaq, so my trading will be limited until it shows signs that it wants to hold above 2050 and it closes back above its 9EMA. The bear flag on the Nasdaq is not very pretty, so expect a quick move to 2000 if we do not get a bounce soon.
Internet or Interference?
There is a flurry of activity on the Internet these days. Everyone is adding content to their sites to make them more robust. They want their site to be the one stop portal for all of your needs. The problem is it could all be going a bit too far.
Google is set to roll out a mapping service. You can search, or Google, just about anything or anyone you can think of. That is where part of the problem is. Go out to Google and type in your phone number. You should see all of the pertinent information, and than you should also see a handy map to your home. For some, this may be a great service. But could this also be taking privacy a bit far? How could this data be used? Who might end up using it? If you inadvertently lose your cell phone or PDA, is there personal information on it? If your home phone is on yours, or someone else's cell and it is lost, someone could very easily begin to compile information on you.
This is not a commentary meant to scare everyone. In part, it is to make you aware of the power of the Internet, and some of the things that can be found out there. As Peter Parker's uncle told him, “With great power comes great responsibility”. With the great searching power of the Internet and sites like Google, there is great responsibility to ensure that the data is helpful and yet somehow still protect the individual. Sometimes, I think the push for information outweighs the privacy concerns. Those will only come after there are problems.
Google has been a very powerful stock. It is truly reminiscent of the bubble years. Google does seem to be on the ball with producing revenues and in generating more and more content. It is great for investors, but for the individual, we do have to ask if things are going too far.
Please tell a friend about our service. As always, thank you for your support past, present and future! We will see you Sunday evening.
Do not forget to check your short-term holdings and know when those companies are reporting earnings. Holding a stock through earnings is risky and I do not recommend it. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
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