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Tuesday, February 01, 2005
Market Recap
The market continues to rally for the 2nd day in a row with the Dow closing up +62 points, the NASDAQ up +6 points and the S&P 500 up +8 points. Is the bull on its way back? Well, it is too early to tell. Charts of the indices tonight will show you mixed signals with one indice still neutral, one bearish, and one beginning to look bullish. I have those charts in tonight's charts section for you to see what I am referring to. The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow and that will be the talk of the trading floor as they await the announcement. More on this development below.
Fed Up with the Fed?
The Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates tomorrow at 2:15 EST. As usual, I would not expect there to be much volume in the markets tomorrow morning. The market will be on hold awaiting the Fed announcement. The consensus is a .25 rate hike so, if we get that, there should be very little reaction from the market. If there are no surprises tomorrow, the announcement should be a non-event. If the Fed, for some reason, decides not to raise, or raises by more than .25, then that would be a surprise and the market will react accordingly. Markets will always over react big either way if it is surprised.
GOOG is GOOD
The Google earnings report after the bell today was excellent and the stock is trading back above $200, in after hours trading. They earned .71 a share, beating the street estimate by .10. Again, we see super earnings from another tech giant. This has been a consistent theme this quarter so far and over the last few months. It amazes me, with all these great earnings, that the stock market is struggling to stay above water. Hopefully, this news can bolster the Nasdaq up and out of its bearish trend.
Payback's are a…..
I am not sure if I would call this the lighter side of Wall Street or not.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/31/news/fortune500/re...
During the bubble years, many brokerage houses were doing all they could to make sure they put the “broke” in “brokerage”. Manipulating stocks has always been part of their game but during these years, it seems manipulation was bigger than it had ever been before. They played up stocks with no assets, no business plans, and no future. They helped CEO's rape the companies they worked at for millions of dollars.
Eventually, they were caught. All the overblown right ups on stocks and all the crashes that happened afterwards pointed the finger at these brokers. Now they are paying the price and settling with investors. A $1.5 billion dollar settlement, of which investors are entitled to $433 million… wait a minute… that is roughly only 1/3 of the entire settlement.
Lawyers, no doubt, are getting more than their fair share in this deal and so is the SEC, at least indirectly. Same thing goes with brokerage houses and research firms. $85 million to investor education? Perhaps they can send a few of those investors who got burned our way for a little of that education. $450 million for “independent investment research”. Independent? That is a laugh. $500 million paid to the states? I am not sure what part the states played in this, but they have to get their cut to. As with the tobacco settlements, you can bet that most of the monies will be miss-appropriated. Finally, the small amount that is left over is what the actual investors who lost money get. Even in a settlement, the small investor is last in line for any compensation for the unlawful acts of the late 90's. They are the very reason the litigation was brought forward yet, the last to get a piece of the settlement.
It is unfortunate that most investors will never learn how Wall Street really works. The brokerage houses will keep trying to educate the small investor, but I am afraid, the only education they will get is what they want them to learn. They will teach investors to listen to what they have to say and they will keep them “broke” like they always have. There is a reason they are called “brokerage houses”. I guess getting something is better than getting nothing but really, the small investors are getting the shaft again. Remember that old saying, “Payback's are a b%^#?” , in this case the payback really is.
The Name Game
The time has come for us to change our name. Trade With Pizza Driver has been a great name for us; it is the name that got us started on the Yahoo board back in May of 2003. The name, however, was not well thought out because at the time, we were not expecting to evolve into a full fledge stock trading service with a website full of content. Now that we have built a super website, we need to get a name that will draw in potential new members. At first glance, the name TWPD does not appear to be as professional as we would like to think we are, and wewould like potential members to think we are. After signing up, these new members find out how professional our site is, but just getting them through the door with a name like TWPD has been a tough sell. Many people click on the site and when they see the name, they cannot take us seriously and do not complete the sign-up process. We feel, although it has been a unique name, it does have its disadvantages. We will be selecting a new name over the course of the next couple of weeks. We are open to suggestions. If you have a name you like and would like to see us use it, and if that name is available, send it to me via email. If we select the name you submit, we will give one year's worth of service free.
Please tell a friend about our service. As always, thank you for your support past, present and future! We will see you tomorrow evening.
Do not forget to check your short-term holdings and know when those companies are reporting earnings. Holding a stock through earnings is risky and I do not recommend it. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles.
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/highlight.asp?client...
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