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Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Market Recap
 The market has started the week off in the right direction with a big rally after some early selling this morning.  The Dow had a 128 point range falling to a low of 10500, which was a psychological support level and then buyers stepped in.  I got the feeling today that they did not want the Dow to dip below 10500.  The Dow closed the day up 70 points and at its high.  The NASDAQ and S&P also closed at their respective highs of the day with 18 and 11 point gains.

 We have been anticipating a bounce and we got a very good one today.  I suspect follow through buying tomorrow because of the super earnings released after the bell by IBM and YHOO.  This market needs great earnings reports by these big cap companies if we are to head higher, and so far, I like what I've seen from the earnings reports this quarter.  Last week, both AAPL and INTC blew away analysts expectations, tonight IBM and YHOO “showed us the money” as well.  These guys are coming through with great reports, now it is time for the buyers to commit to this market.  They should be coming out soon and we can not ask for better earnings than we have gotten so far.

Earnings Reports
 Big Blue (IBM) and Yahoo (YHOO) reported strong earnings results after the bell today.  Good news from these two tech giants should propel the markets higher tomorrow.  It was a record year for YHOO as they also reported full year results.  I thought their numbers would be pretty solid and stated this earlier this morning that if the YHOO numbers were good, we could expect a jump up from GOOG following the YHOO earnings.  I have a chart of GOOG tonight and you will see that these good YHOO earnings came right on time as GOOG is setting up for a massive breakout.

Housing Stocks
 The housing sector is on fire even though interest rates are on the rise.  Some may ask, how can this be? Awhile back there was talk of shorting this sector. We advised against it and said we should wait until the uptrend line broke down. We took a couple of short term short positions when rates were hiked, just to capitalize on the short term downward movement in the stocks based on the over reaction of the crowd. However, those were short lived trades because the trend was up and we do not fight the trends.  Besides the super looking charts, the other factors against the shorts were the very low PE's and good earnings growth. This alone should have been a deterrent against a longer term short position. The shorts were thinking, "if interest rates are rising, then that should be bad for this group going forward". Nice thought. However, because rates are rising, people are hurrying to lock in rates while they are low, and this is putting a tremendous amount of demand for new houses on these home builders.  We will see this in their upcoming earnings reports, I am sure.  I am expecting a run-up in these stocks before earnings are released.  We know that the numbers will be great for these companies similar to the great numbers we expected out of AAPL last week.  The AAPL numbers were great and the stock gapped up $8.00.  Of course, these are not tech stocks like AAPL, so we may be comparing “apples to oranges”, but most of these stocks are breaking into new highs now right before earnings, which should signal to us that earnings will be super for this group.  I have charts of these market leaders tonight.  When markets are uncertain, all we can do is look for the leading sectors and the home builders have by far been leading the way, regardless of the overall market conditions. 

NYSE Open Before 9:30am?
 Interesting news coming out on Wall Street, the NYSE is looking at ways to act as a secondary market for stocks currently trading on the London exchange.  It may be opening earlier in the day to accommodate europium traders.  This is not earth shattering news but, nonetheless, very interesting and could change the face of the markets as we currently know them.  

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/15/news/international...

 Do not forget to check your short-term holdings and know when those companies are reporting earnings. Holding a stock through earnings is risky and I do not recommend it. You can always buy the stock back after the dust settles. 

http://www.fulldisclosure.com/earning.asp?date=200...

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