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Wednesday, December 29, 2004
Market Recap
The markets seem to be wandering around with little direction as the indices flatten out in the last week of trading. Today was an uneventful day overall, with the Dow dropping -25 points, while the NASDAQ and S&P were about as close to unchanged as they could have been, down only a fraction of a point each. As the indices traded flat today, a few of our bulletin stocks had very good days, most notably TASR which closed at both a new 52 week high and a new all time high. This means that this stock now has no resistance above and is free to soar. When stocks get into new levels, it is difficult to be able to predict how high they will go. All we can do at this point is hold on for the ride and see where it takes us.
Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence
Many online companies in the retail sector are turning out larger than expected profits. AMZN said sales over the holiday season were enormous. All of this points to the real consumer sentiment. This news in the retail sector tells us that people are spending money. The consumer confidence numbers rallied to a five month high on Tuesday. The American consumers are saying very loudly that they are confident and the numbers from Amazon.com are validating the point. This is very good news for the economy and the stock market going into 2005.
2005 Trading is Almost Here
The 2004 trading year is coming to a close this week. It is time to position ourselves for 2005. Our end of year tax loss selling will happen tomorrow or Friday as we will finally cut loose the six dogs we got stuck with this year. These losses are inexcusable and we at TWPD have taken measures to make sure something like this does not happen again. I will not go into explaining why we held these stocks again because it has been explained many times before. It is time to look ahead to 2005 and what we hope to expect in the next trading year.
If you have not sold any losers you may still be holding, you may want to do so before the end of this week. If the charts are broken on any of your stocks, there is no need to hold them into the new year. Start the year off fresh with cash ready to buy some stocks that have good chart patterns and look ready to move up.
2004 was a tough year to trade, but in the end, we will still have out paced the overall market even after our tax loss selling is completed. The market conditions this year were certainly not as good as 2003 so we could not have expected to make the same monster returns we made last year. However, with the way the charts are setting up on the indices at the end of 2004 and beginning of 2005, things look promising for the 2005 trading year. It is too early to say if we will see another 400% return year like we did in 2003, but I bet we will certainly beat our 2004 return significantly.
Today, we started to position ourselves in some of the stocks with super looking charts. We would like to start the year off in some of the stocks that have been building solid bases from which to breakout from. ADSX, OPWV, and ARBA are the three we bought today. I have all three of these charts for you tonight so you can see why I feel they will be winners in 2005. Others I like from the Bulletin are MBAY, MIPS, TERN, and TIBX and will look to get into these soon.
Full Trading Day this Friday
It looks as though the stock market will be open for a full day this Friday, so there will be a bulletin on Thursday December 30. (Originally, I thought Friday would be only a ½ day so no bulletin would be produced.)
Holiday greetings from TWPD
From all of us at TWPD, we hope you all have a wonderful holiday season with your family and friends. We would like to wish all our members a very happy New Year. May 2005 be a great year for you and your loved ones.
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As always, thank you for your support past, present, and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all Tomorrow evening.
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