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Tuesday, December 21, 2004
*note: SPX chart above not available today.
Market Recap
The markets rebounded today with the bulls strongly in control of today's trading. The Dow gained almost +100 points, and the NASDAQ and S&P gained +23 and +10 points respectively. This was one of those trading days that was difficult to decipher. The indices looked strong all day but you would never know it looking at our bulletin stocks. Our stocks lagged the market today. That does not happen often but it will at times. There is not much we can do when there is a rotation out of small cap stocks and into other areas of the market, and that appears to be the case today. These rotations do happen. There was also a period like this last year when the small caps lagged the rest of the market briefly. It was only a brief time as these stocks pulled back from a big run. The small cap index is still near its highs of the year and has easily out paced the larger indexes this year, so a slight rotation may be in order. My guess is that it will not last long and the small caps stocks will be back for another run soon.
Economy on Track
There is further evidence of a coming bull market longer term. There short term pullbacks and flat lining action to overcome, but in the longer term, the outlook is very positive. The index of leading indicators rose in the most recent reading by .02%. This comes after five consecutive months of declines. The consumer price index also moved up ever so slightly last week, coming in with an increase of .02% as well.
The move in consumer prices is a good sign that inflation is not running rampant. This will probably be enough data to cause the Fed to raise interest rates once again the next time they meet in 2005. I do not want to get ahead of myself with predicting the next fed move but they have been watching inflationary numbers very closely to ensure that they do not blow this recovery out of the water.
The Real Numbers
Federal Express released data to show that they are shipping a huge amount of packages this year. This is the type of data we need to look at as part of the equation when we evaluate the real strength of the economy and of consumer confidence. As we have stated before, the consumer confidence survey is a small populous of consumers so it is inherently set up to be inaccurate. It is really about as accurate as presidential voting exit polls, LOL. Looking at sales figured from retailers and shipping figures from companies like FedEx and UPS will give us a better idea of the real story.
We have to remember that most of the data that is released is an attempt to put things into perspective or into some discernable format for everyone to understand. Wall Street looks at their own set of indicators, and those are not likely to be published anywhere you or I can find. So we have to create our own data sources and reports from the real numbers we get from various sources. Staying ahead of the crowd and knowing how they will react will keep us out in front of most of the herd most of the time.
Surprising Divergence
Our list of bulletin stocks is growing smaller. This is sort of a divergence to we are also seeing in the major indices. As the markets make new highs or looking healthy, our watch list should be growing. This divergence has not happened since our service began. Usually when the markets are going up, our list grows in excess of 50 bulletin stocks. Right now, we have just over 30 stocks which has concerned me lately. It is a mixed signal we have not had to deal with in almost 2 years, but the market can be humbling at times. This is just another angle it is throwing at us, and the market cannot fool us for long. We will figure out this latest twist and be back with some excellent plays next week.
Tonight's Charts
It is a good exercise to look back and see where some stocks have come since we first showed the charts. Tonight I have some updates on the recent charts we have featured.
Holiday Season Bulletins
There will be no bulletin on Thursday December 23rd because the market is closed on Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday. There will be no bulletin next Thursday December 30, because the market is only open for only a half day trading on New Year's Eve.
Holiday greetings from TWPD
From all of us at TWPD, we hope you all have a wonderful holiday season with your family and friends. We would like to wish all our members a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. May 2005 be a great year for you and your loved ones.
Stock charts listing
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As always, thank you for your support past, present, and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all tomorrow evening. |
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