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Thursday, December 16, 2004

Market Recap
 It turns out that yesterday's action was just a tease as today, the markets decided to pullback. The day started out with the markets trading pretty much flat and it was looking like things were gearing up to move higher. However, that sentiment quickly changed after lunch and the sellers took control for the rest of the trading session. The Nasdaq finished the day down –16 pts. The Dow managed to squeak out a gain of +14 pts and the S&P was lower by -2 pts. The Dow was able to stay positive thanks to nice gains from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on the news that they will be buying Guidant (GDT) for $14 billion. While the losses on the Nasdaq and S&P were not large, it is a short term negative that the markets were again turned away at their breakout point.

 The good news is that the markets bounced off their lows of the day. The not-so-good news is that the selling was on above average volume. It is never good when the down volume is above average. This is definitely an indication that some heavy hitters took some money off the table today. The drag on the Nasdaq continues to be the Sox index. As I often mention, the Nasdaq will have a very difficult time making new highs without the participation of the Sox. Today, the Sox again failed to hold above its 200MA. However, it did manage to close above price support at 425. The Sox chart is tightening up so I am expecting a commitment in one direction or the other very soon. I am keeping a very close watch on this index, and I will continue to be very selective on my buys in the market until the Sox commits to the upside. All that we can do is continue to be patient and have our cash ready to put to work when the market gives us the signal. Until then, the preferred method to buy stocks is on pullbacks to minimize risk. We will buy breakouts, but strong volume is absolutely essential when we do.

Social Security
 Social Security reforms are a very hot topic in Washington these days. We have heard talk about reforms in the past. With President Bush getting set for his second term in office, I think we may finally see some action with Social Security. The system was set up back in 1935 by Franklin Roosevelt, as a way to cope with the Great Depression.  Little has been done to reform the system or even tweak it since its inception. It is now one of the government's largest handouts. It had also got to be one of the touchiest subjects for any American.

 Younger Americans want reform. They want more control over the system. Older Americans see the system as their way of life. Having contributed to the system over their working lifetime, they want and rightly deserve to receive benefits. The problem is those benefits are a significant portion more than what they contributed. Younger, working Americans are paying extra money into the system now, and the timeline for their ability to draw social security is being lengthened. All of this to save a system nearly 75 years old, and set up to cope with rampant unemployment during the depression years.

 The reforms that Bush is calling for would allow Americans to invest a portion of their contributions in the stock market. I doubt that the system would allow for swing trading, but it would certainly open the door on mutual funds. This would be a boon for the markets. It would also help to partially save Social Security for millions of working Americans who likely will see little or no benefits if things do not change.

 Reforms need to happen. The system has not been changed in any material way since its inception. If this legislation is acted upon and is passed, I am sure it will take some time and effort to really set things up. We will not instantly be able to start trading. However, I think the reaction in the markets will be rather instantaneous. They will love this type of proposal. More money flowing into stocks, even if it is through mutual funds, will really ramp up the bull market. This could be part of what we are seeing with predictions for the markets in 2005. It should be a good year no matter what. But if this legislation passes, it should be an even better year!

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