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Wednesday, December 15, 2004
Market Recap
Although they are small advances, the stock market is still making new highs and moving ahead at a steady pace. Today there was a report of a decline in heating oil inventories and this had oil prices on the rise by $2.37, the biggest one day gain for oil in six months. Stock prices normally fall when oil rises, however, stocks held their ground again today. The NASDAQ closed at a new 52 week high, and it is setting up for higher prices as we move forward into the new year. The Dow gained +15 points while the NASDAQ and S&P each posted a +2 point gain. I have a chart of each of these three big indices tonight to update you on where I think we are headed.
GOOG Lock-up Expires
25 million more shares are eligible to be sold by insiders starting tomorrow. This should bring selling pressure to the stock and may cause the price to fall suddenly. There will be more shares set loose on the market in the coming months and this is why we never traded this stock. Too much uncertainly and with this periodic schedule of lock-up release, it is dangerous to be long. A short position may be a better play if you feel the need to trade GOOG.
Email About the Losers
I have received emails about last night's commentary when I mentioned the eight big losers. Since there seems to be confusion on why we still own them, I will attempt to again explain why.
Let me point out that those eight positions when sold will not affect the overall trade record substantially. If we closed out these losers at today's closing prices, our record since inception would be about 450% or so. The inception record combines 2003 and 2004. We will begin a new trade record for 2005 with a 100K model portfolio just as we have done the last two years. Next year we will roll the 2005 trade record into the inception record and start a model portfolio for 2006 and so on. This way, we are able to show both our overall record and percentage gained since we started our service, and also our current year's portfolio.
Yes, we have some big losers this year, but as I have stated, we kept them because on the days they fell below our sell points, I was not around to send the sell alert. Again, our trade record is based on only the alerts we send. Since I did not send an alert to sell, we will be honest and keep the trades until the end of the year and sell for the loss with an alert. This hurts the service and our trade record performance but it is the only legitimate way to resolve this issue.
Our business model of counting actual trades based on alerts we send hinders our winning percentage if for some reason I am unable to send an alert when a stock falls. There are few other services, if any at all, which count only the trades that are made as their performance record. This is what makes TWPD unique. Most other services will count the day they list a stock (whether they trade it or not) and they calculate their gains based on the exact high it went to after they listed the stock. We know this is unrealistic and will not do that in our official return record. Our portfolio is more realistic, and it makes our gains of 450% even that more spectacular. Couple this with the low risk 5% money management system we use makes the gains even more incredible. Tell me who you know whose portfolio is up 450% in the last 20 months that is only risking 5% of their portfolio in any one trade. I do not think there are many people who can say they have made these types of gains with such little risk. Some may have done it, but I am sure they risked much more than 5% on each trade. If they did take the big risk, the results could have been disastrous if the trade went bad. Our system allows for maximum gain with minimal risk.
We have been honest about these trades; we did not want to bury them away. There are probably very few members that are still in these losers if any at all. We have been reiterating the fact that these were bad trades and to close the position if still open. The bulletin comments even state this constantly so our new members do not make the mistake of buying them. I wish I did not have to look at them daily on the bulletin; it is painful to see them there every day. But they will stay until a sell alert goes out because our integrity means more to us than a stock trade. These are 8 bad trades out of 825 closed trades that we have made over the last 20 months.
In the over all scheme of things, that's a pretty good percentage and we are proud to say that since our inception, we have out performed the NASDAQ by 15 times the return of the NASDAQ over the same time frame. I would ask that you not get hung up on these few bad trades considering the overall percentage gains of 450% we have accomplished since we began the service. 2005 looks like it will be an excellent year for the market and I am sure we will continue to greatly out perform the overall gains of the indices once again.
Toys for Tots
There is nothing more gratifying as watching a child's eyes light up on Christmas morning. It is the Christmas season and there are many children who will go without gifts under the tree this year. I will be a special Christmas if we can make the difference for just a few of them. Please drop a toy or two off at your nearest toys for tot's campaign this year. Thank you.
Stockcharts Listing
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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
Thank you all for voting.
As always, thank you for your support past, present, and future! Have a great night everyone; we'll see you all tomorrow evening.
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