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Thursday, December 09, 2004
Market Recap
It was a rollercoaster ride in the markets as the day started out ugly with the futures down big, and sure enough, the selling started right out of the gate. The SOX index was the leader in the selling after XLNX and ALTR lowered sales guidance yesterday after the bell. These two reports coupled with the report from TXN yesterday brought out the sellers in the chip sector in force. This selling could not have come at a worse time since the market had sold off just two days prior. The good news is that by noon the bulls took back control of the market and all the major indices closed in the green and well off of their intraday lows. The Dow finished up +58 points, the NASDAQ finished higher by +2 points, and the S&P closed up +6 points.
Today's action was no doubt short term bullish and it indicates to me that this market is just not ready to give in to the sellers. Yes there is plenty of overhead resistance to contend with, but the important point is that the indices remain in their uptrend. The nice reversal also kept many charts from breaking down below critical support levels. The bears were certainly scratching their heads at the close, but a closer look at the Dow and SOX charts will show you the support that brought the bulls back out in force.
I must admit that things were not looking good early in the session when I peaked at the SOX index and it was headed straight towards the 50MA with a vengeance. I anticipated a bounce off of that level, but not of the magnitude that we saw today. However, the SOX index is not out of the woods yet as it is still below its 200MA. Please be very selective with stocks that you buy in the chip sector, as it will no doubt be a very volatile sector to be in for the short term.
You may not see me trade much tomorrow because many of our bulletin stocks need another day to confirm that today's reversal will hold before I jump in with both feet and load up on longs again. If the market cooperates tomorrow I should have plenty of new stocks on Sunday's bulletin for us to trade next week.
“Ring” in the New Year
Here is an idea to ring up potential profits in 2005. Cell phones are widely used in the U.S. What is interesting is that the U.S. is not the world leader when it comes to cell phone usage and innovation. Europe has been far ahead of the U.S. when it comes to talking on the go for some time now. A lot of the technology that we have coming into the U.S. has been in Europe for some time.
Musical ring tones are now coming to the U.S. Joe tells me that cell phones in Switzerland are always playing the latest music. Teens especially, are downloading the latest songs probably on a weekly basis. They can not be seen in public without a highly fashionable phone, and you know it cannot be playing last week's number 1 song. It has to be current.
U.S. teens are just as fickle about what's hot and what's not. I expect that the U.S. market will be huge for this sort of twist on technology. Everyone will want to have a personalized ring tone to suit their mood. At $2 a download, this will be a huge cash stream for companies that provide cell phones and service.
We have always stressed looking at our kids for the latest trends. I think this is one that we should not put on hold. We want to start dialing up a profit by locating the best charts in the communication sector, and see what we can find.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/08/technology/persona...
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