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Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Market Recap
The markets were on the defensive again, pulling back for the second day in a row. The Dow lost -47 points, the NASDAQ dropped 10 points, and the S&P was down nearly -5 points. There is no need to be alarmed by this pullback. There will be pullbacks in bull markets, and during these dips will be the time to buy stocks. Buying strong stocks on pullbacks is the way to trade a bull market. I believe we are in a bull market now, and in fact, I believe the market is due for another run-up soon. I have a weekly chart of the Dow tonight and you will see why I am bullish after looking at the chart. There is a flag on the pole formation just above the down trend line. When we broke above the down trend line, that is when I showed the chart and said a new bull has begun. I stand behind that statement and tonight's chart reaffirms my position. Now is the time to get long in the best charts in the market. I'll reaffirm, “Cash is no longer King.”
Black and Blue Friday
The Friday after Thanksgiving is traditionally referred to as “Black Friday”. This is because retailers will often appear to be in the red until this particular Friday when sales pick up enough show a profit on the year and go into the black. With all the battles as the doors opened for business on the weekend, it should be called “Black and Blue Friday”. You had to fight to get a parking spot, you had to fight your way through the doors, and then you had to fight your way down each isle of the stores. Joe told me that he and his father went shopping at Best Buy and waited in a line to check out for over 50 minutes. He said it was like a line at an amusement park waiting to get on a popular ride. With all these people out buying you would think that it would be a very good holiday for the retailers.
I have read forecasts suggesting that sales will be very robust. With the sheer number of people out shopping, I would tend to believe these initial reports. Visa has reported some very solid numbers on people charging merchandise this past Friday. All that charging going on shows that the consumer is a lot more confident than recent confidence reports suggest. We talked about this a few weeks back, the consumer confidence numbers are calculated based on a very small survey taken every month. The real consumer confidence shows up on days like last Friday.
On Monday retailing giant Wal-Mart lowered their sales numbers. Wal-Mart is the gauge on which the entire retail industry hinges. They predicted an increase in sales, but not as much as they had once been calling for. This Wal-Mart report weighed a bit on the markets Monday and there was continuation selling today. The media led the crowd to believe that Black Friday was rather grey and dismal, but from everything else I have seen and read, the stores were jammed packed most of the weekend with stampede like rushes on the doors when they opened. How does a company revise down when they are generating record sales? Something just does not seem to add up.
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