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Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Market Recap
The markets were flat today and that was expected with the Thanksgiving holidays closing in on us. The markets are closed Thursday, and Friday is only a half day of trading. Many traders are already closing out positions and leaving for the holiday break. The Dow was up +3 points while both the NASDAQ and S&P were down a fraction. Not much to speak of in the way of movement on the major indices but there were some very good moves in some of our bulletin stocks today. SNDA, COGT, ROXI, EENC, ENER, and IMAX all made new 52 week highs.
Road Trip!!!
I have updated many comments tonight to set you up for the rest of the week. This is our last bulletin until Sunday evening. I am flying to Phoenix with my son this weekend and will be joining my good friend Mike Serven at the Jets Cardinals football game on Sunday. If you watch the game, you just may see us. We will probably be the only three fools wearing green in a sea of red, LOL. We aim to have the bulletin ready for release on Sunday morning as I am flying back after the game on Sunday evening.
TWPD Mailbag
We receive many emails from our members and most of the time it is positive. We recently received an email from a long time subscriber who disagreed with one of my commentaries. With his permission, a have publish his email tonight. I do not always agree with every member and I know many have disagreed with me over some trades or issues we have discussed. It is okay to disagree with each other. I may not always agree with others but that certainly does not mean they are wrong. I wake up every day with the attitude that I can always learn something new from anybody at any time. I am not an expert at any one thing and wish to learn all I can from anyone who is willing to teach me. I still learn from people every day in various subjects that come up in my daily life. I believe you have to have this attitude if you want to succeed in anything. It is my opinion that everyone should be willing to listen to other points of view. Whether I agree or not with the email does not matter, the point is, we all have different opinions and if we listen to each other with an open mind, we just might learn something from it. This member has a different view of the falling dollar and higher interest rates and I wanted to share them with you tonight. Here is his email in its entirety, unedited:
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In your commentary last night you stated that we can expect another rate hike from the feds in December and that rate hikes are not good for stocks and neither is a falling dollar.
Contrary to this, I see the falling US$ as a benefit to the US. A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper. If the intent of the feds is to increase manufacturing in the US and keep work at home, then a lower dollar will help and will also help offset any trade deficits. The feds may possibly be willing to accept some inflation that is higher than normal to achieve this, and not raise rates.
Further increases in interest rates will also start to impact the economy in regards to the mortgage position of many homeowners who have refinanced or increased their financing on their home, many of which are probably already maxed out. On renewal, higher interest rates will have a large impact on these homeowners and also their mortgage company. A 1% increase on a mortgage at 5% is a 20% increase.
A lower US$ will also benefit those companies that have operations outside the US. Converting these foreign earnings to US$ will thus increase their reported earnings; even in the foreign earnings are the same as the previous year, simply due to the exchange impact.
Just my thoughts, for what its worth.
Regards,
Jim
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From all of us at TWPD, Happy Thanksgiving to all our members.
Reminder
There will be no bulletin on Wednesday evening November 24th as markets are closed for Thanksgiving Day holiday on the 25th. There will also be no bulletin on Thanksgiving evening for Friday's half day of trading. Tuesday November 23rd will be the last bulletin next week. The next bulletin after that will be Sunday November 28th. Wishing you all a wonderful happy Thanksgiving.
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