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Monday, November 22, 2004
Market Recap
The market opened today in sell mode, but it did not take long for buyers to step in and take over again. After a little breather on Friday, the market bounced back with the Dow gaining +32 points, the NASDAQ gaining +14 points, and the S&P gaining +7 points. In bull markets, pullbacks are bought with a vengeance. Every pullback to support should be bought with urgency and that is what happened today. In last night's chart of the NASDAQ, we mentioned that there should be a bounce around the 2050 area. Today, the low of the day was 2052 when the bounce started. The wolves will try and shake the sheep out and buy up their shares when they sell in a panic; we saw a little of that action this morning. Look for these types of moves to happen over the next few months. Remember, sell offs are a buying opportunity in a bull market.
Post Election
The government is getting down to business, wasting no time in the initial post election weeks. In a previous commentary, I mentioned that after the elections that I thought we would see several actions taken based on the 9/11 report. It looks like that is starting to come to pass. With the Republican Party in control of the White House, the House, and the Senate, we should see them getting busy getting numerous bills passed:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/19/intel.re...
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/19/spending...
There is a rush to get a spending bill passed and put in front of the President to sign. There is a lot of humanitarian relief in this bill, but the part we want to focus on is the inclusion of money for biohazard detection equipment for the post office. That is one of the first steps to be taken to beef up security around shipping. That is just one action, and I am sure we will see a lot more improvements and recommendations coming out of the 9/11 report. If even half of those recommendations are budgeted for and passed, stocks in the security sector should start to improve.
Slow Holiday Week
The markets took a well deserved break on Friday. I believe it was nothing more than profit taking from the recent run. For the rest of this week, expect to see very slow trading due to the short holiday Thanksgiving week. With only two full trading days this week and many traders leaving the markets behind for long weekend, the volume should be very light on Wednesday and Friday. We may be taking positions as stocks move down to support levels without the confirmation of volume to indicate it is not more than a shakeout. Keep an eye on your positions; we do not want to be shaken out this week, only to see the markets come roaring back next week as the Santa Clause rally begins.
Reminder
There will be no bulletin on Wednesday evening November 24th as markets are closed for Thanksgiving Day holiday on the 25th. There will also be no bulletin on Thanksgiving evening for Friday's half day of trading. Tuesday November 23rd will be the last bulletin next week. The next bulletin after that will be Sunday November 28th. Wishing you all a wonderful happy Thanksgiving.
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