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Sunday, November 21, 2004
Market Recap
In last week's commentary we said that the markets were extended and were due for a pullback. Our chart of the NASDAQ on Thursday night suggested the market needed a much needed rest after a very nice run-up. On Friday, the pullback came as expected and the market sold off quite a bit. The Dow suffered a triple digit loss, down -115 points while the NASDAQ lost -33 and the S&P lost -13. It was an ugly red day from the start and it just kept getting worse as the day went on. Friday was certainly a day for profit taking after the big market run-up over the last few weeks. Fridays are a good time to sell when the market is extended and it was very over bought. However, the sell off on Friday does not damage the charts of the indices at all. These types of pull backs or corrections will happen many times over the course of a bull market. Many charts took a small hit in Friday's carnage but not enough to damage them into being removed from the bulletin. Like the charts of the indices, many individual stock charts are still in good shape. There were only two stocks that were damaged enough to be removed this weekend.
Radio Getting Sirius
Radio is getting serious or should I say that satellite radio is getting Sirius (SIRI)? Howard Stern, the self proclaimed ‘king of all media' is out with more news and more publicity for Sirius. For those of you who may not be following Stern's trials and tribulations, he is a “shock jock” on a nationally syndicated show. The FCC has had many issues with programming of this type, and subsequently Infinity Broadcasting has been hit with numerous fines. Howard is leaving the FM dial behind, to begin broadcasting on Sirius in January of 2006. He seems to be turning up the heat and potentially rolling back the clock on his departure:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/18/news/newsmakers/st...
He is calling satellite radio the wave of the future, and he is right in my opinion. I highlighted SIRI and XMSR (XM Satellite Radio) as good long term investments a few months ago based on the direction radio is taking. With everything going to convenience and to customizability, satellite radio makes perfect sense. We are a digital society now, and this type of radio transmission fits in perfectly. Besides Sirius, the other top player in the field (the leader of the two at the moment) is XMSR. They took an early lead and has not relinquished it. SIRI has been playing catch-up from day one, but they have been making some very big strides lately. They recently went after and won a seven year broadcasting deal with the NFL. Now they have signed Howard Stern and I am sure there will be many more big deals to come as satellite radio grows in popularity.
The hardware for capturing a satellite signal is cheap and I would not be surprised if these units are given away for free or rented out in the future, much like satellite television receivers and dishes are today. The big profit for these companies will not be from the hardware sales, it will come from the monthly subscription fees. Satellite radio may be the standard in a few years when the mass public finds out how much better it is than the FM dial. This potential revenue stream will be massive for SIRI and XMSR.
People pay America Online for the monthly access rights to the web portal and to the internet in general. Most of their subscribers are very brand loyal and will stick with them. I think SIRI and XMSR will have the same brand loyalty that other big companies enjoy in other businesses. After all, once you subscribe to satellite radio, what other radio could you possibly want to listen to? It is the clearest signal, you choose only the music you want to hear, and it is commercial free with no loud mouth screaming at the top of their lungs about the once in a life time blowout 50% off sale at your local furniture store or car dealership (Funny how these once in a lifetime sales happen almost every weekend, LOL). I am banking on that loyal subscriber base and that is why SIRI is in our long term portfolio. The company has unlimited potential and a very good future, it is just a matter of whether it can execute. This is definitely a sector that we should be ‘tuned in' to for many years of growth.
Reminder
There will be no bulletin on Wednesday evening November 24th as markets are closed for Thanksgiving Day holiday on the 25th. There will also be no bulletin on Thanksgiving evening for Friday's half day of trading. Tuesday November 23rd will be the last bulletin next week. The next bulletin after that will be Sunday November 28th. Wishing you all a wonderful happy Thanksgiving.
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