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Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Market Recap
 Oil continued its slide today as it fell down another $1.72, now below $48.00 per barrel. This should be fueling a move up in the stock market. However, the market has been on hold for two days in a row awaiting both Cisco earnings after the bell tonight and the Fed meeting on interest rates tomorrow. The Dow was down -4 points, the NASDAQ gained +4 points, and the S&P was down fractionally. Although the markets were flat, many bulletin stocks continue to make new 52 week highs: COGT, SNDA, CREE, TZOO, VDSI, RNOW, ISSX, SMSI, OSTK, LONG, and ECST. 

The Mother of All Guidance
 After hours Cisco released earnings and they met estimates but only meeting estimates will not get the market excited. I was hoping this giant would come out with better than expected earnings with some stellar forward guidance. If that happened, there could have been a massive short covering rally tomorrow. But my optimism was over done and this report became a non-event: http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/scottmoritz/1...
CSCO's forward guidance is what counts, and it is a bit soft so the market and tech stocks will not like this news from the tech bellwether.

Looking Forward
 I am fairly certain the fed will raise rates tomorrow. How will the market react? It is a tough call, but I believe the market has already priced in a ΒΌ percent interest rate hike. The tone of the feds comments and the direction of rates in the future will be more important. The market will trade based on these comments and not necessarily the rate hike itself. Like always, the media will put a negative spin on the rate hikes in an attempt to force the inexperienced investor or trader out of the market just before the big run-up. Pay no attention to the talking heads tomorrow. The experienced trader will follow the charts and the charts of many stocks are setting up for a nice move up soon. I have said before that consolidation like we have had the last two days is very healthy for the market. The market has not given back any of its gains that it had when it ran up to new 52 week highs on the S&P just last week. The NASDAQ remains above 2000 support and has not given its gains back. Volume during this consolidation has been light, which is technically very good. In my opinion, the market is headed higher. Long is the position to be in now as opposed to cash or short.  
 
The King Has A Halo
 Microsoft (MSFT) released the much anticipated game Halo2 today. There were long lines at retailers where people were purchasing this game the first day out. The stock has been improving recently and should continue to move up as the sales numbers on Halo2 start hitting the street. This reminds us that Christmas is just around the corner and we should be looking at some of the companies that may have some hot products for sale this holiday season. Microsoft is a household name, but it is no longer the momentum stock it once was. I mentioned before that if I could only own just one stock for the long term, MSFT would be my choice because it is such a great company to own. This is a great stock to own in a long term portfolio that you never have to look at. 

 Last Thursday, Joe mentioned MSFT in the Thursday night education session (message #49205). That break over $29 was right on target. If you are not familiar with the Thursday night sessions, you should hang around after the markets close on a Thursday.  Our moderators Joe and Mike will be there to answer questions about stocks and technical analysis. They often have a topic in mind, but will answer whatever questions you throw at them. You just might get a good tip on a stock ready to move also.

Hot Holiday Gadgets
 As the holiday season approaches we should be on the lookout once again for the hot toys of the season. The companies that produce those toys will be the hot stocks over the next few months. There was a commentary many months ago about paying attention to your kids. We should always be cognoscente of what our kids are interested in. They can give us a window into the next trend. Whether it is toys or clothes, we can follow their trend, then look into the companies behind the trend.  

 Some of the hot commodities this Christmas will no doubt be Apple's Ipod (AAPL), the Treo from PalmOne (PLMO), and I think Research in Motion (RIMM) has a new product due out. There will be a number of hot video games out this season as well. The gaming sector will be a place to explore to see which companies might be ready to take their stock to the next level. There are many more companies with hot products if we do the research. All these stocks should do well in advance of the Christmas shopping season. Our first glimpse into these numbers will be the day after Thanksgiving, the heaviest shopping day of the year.

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