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Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Market Recap
The markets were off to a great start today and it looked like the post election rally would start a day early. That was until some early rumors about the election hit Wall Street. After that news, the sellers showed up and the market took a dive. The Dow closed down -18 points, almost 100 points lower than the high of the day. The NASDAQ gained +5 points but at one point during the day, it was above the 2000 level. I was watching to see if it could manage a close above this level (that would have been a major hurdle) but it could not sustain the early morning gains. The S&P was in sleep mode and closed flat.
The culprit for today's reversal in the markets was an unofficial preliminary report that was published suggesting that John Kerry was doing well in the first hours of voting. The market did not seem to like this information and selling ensued right after the news came out. If this is any indication of how the stock market will react if Kerry should win, then I may be wrong about a post election rally no matter which candidate wins. I originally thought the market would rally either way, with a bigger rally if the incumbent won. I am not so sure after seeing the knee jerk reaction to the first highly unreliable reports.
For the last two days we have kept our trading to a minimum, mainly because we are unsure how the market will react Wednesday morning. All we can do is guess, and if I am only guessing, I do not want much on the line. It is like an earnings report; we do not know how a stock will react so it is best not to hold through earnings. If earnings are good, then we can make a decision on entry after the herd reacts. We should trade the election the same way. We will not know the results until Wednesday morning, better to wait it out and react to the reaction of the crowd an hour after the open.
I have reviewed all stocks on the Bulletin tonight, and I have updated comments on those that warrant an update. Due to the market doing the 180 degree turn today, there are not many stocks that need updating.
Tonight's bulletin is abbreviated due to the election. My wife and I need to vote so there is no time to annotate charts tonight. I will try to have a few extra charts later in the week.
Note: Please make sure you vote tonight. People that do not vote lose their right to complain about any decision our law makers make that we may not agree with. Your vote counts. And remember: no matter who wins, it is our duty as citizens to support the President of the United States of America. Good luck to both candidates, and may the best man win.
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