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Sunday, October 31, 2004
Market Recap
The market was on hold on Friday to wait for the election results coming this week. All eyes are on the outcome of the election on Tuesday night, and traders are basically just waiting it out. The Dow closed up +22 points on Friday and stayed above the key 10000 level. The NASDAQ lost a fraction but also remains above its support level of 1960. The S&P gained +3 points and stayed well above its support area of 1100. The market is pointing to a big rally after the election results are in. The big three indices are positioned just above support, and as long as they stay above these levels, upward momentum should come with the buying pressure as volume comes to market after the election results. I am looking forward to a big rally starting Wednesday morning, providing the results from Tuesday evening are clear and will stand without litigation.
Will Bush get Gore'd again?
Tuesday is Election Day. It is time to decide who will lead the United States for the next four years. The markets should rally on Wednesday after the election is decided, no matter who wins. I think the rally will be bigger if Bush wins, but even a Kerry victory should set the market in motion to the upside with the uncertainty behind us. Stock markets do not like uncertainty, and because the polls have showed the outcome may be very close, the market has struggled in the last few months. If there is not a clear winner come Wednesday morning due to one of the candidates failing to concede, the market will be extremely jittery and a sell off may ensue until the official results are finalized. The last thing the market needs now is a debacle like four years ago when Bush almost got “Gored” in Florida.
Alota Bin Hidin'
Osama Bin Laden has been doing a lot of running and hiding over the last year; we have not heard much from him at all. Suddenly just before Election Day, he has crawled out of his cave to make an appearance. It does not say much for U.S. intelligence if we still cannot find this mad man and do not have any clue where he is. I would like to believe our intelligence is a little bit better than this, but apparently this one person seems to be able to elude the entire coalition force and avoid capture. The man is on a dialysis machine and needs medical care for kidney failure. How far can a guy run if he has to have medical treatment every other day? It is almost beyond belief that the CIA cannot find this slug after over three years of hunting and tracking him down like the animal that he is.
On the other hand, this tape of Bin Laden released Friday proves that President Bush's war on terrorism is working. We have not had a terrorist attack in the U.S. since 9/11 and if this tape is the best Osama can do just before the elections, then we should all take that as a major positive. Some may think Bin Laden is alive and we should still worry, but I take these threats on tape as a good sign because President Bush's war on terrorism has reduced Bin Laden to just threats. If Osama had the ability to attack the U.S. just before the election, I suspect he would have. The fact that he has to release a tape instead of an actual attack tells me that his network of terror is incapable of striking the U.S. at this time. If the tape is all he has, then his network of terror has been cut off and paralyzed.
He wants Bush out so he can gather the troops and re-organize. He is probably thinking that under Kerry, the U.S. will stop the offensive, go on the defensive, and just wait to be attacked again before acting. To quote Kerry at the democratic convention, “If we are attacked again by the terrorist, we will hunt them down.” To me, that says the U.S. will not force the issue unless the terrorists strike first. This is the difference between the two candidates on terror; President Bush will not wait for them to “strike us again” before taking protective measures.
Cash or Long?
I have heard many people talk of going to all cash for the first few days of this week. That may be a very good idea considering the rampant uncertainty in the markets surrounding this election. If you load up and gamble that the election will have a decisive winner, I think you will be rewarded with a very strong rally in stocks. However, it is a big gamble in my opinion because if we wake up Wednesday morning to hear that either candidate has requested the Supreme Court to rule on the election results, then the market will likely sell off hard. If you think the election will be that close, cash is the position to have in my opinion. If you think there will be a clear cut winner, you should be long the market for the imminent rally.
* A note on stem cell biotech stocks STEM, ASTM, and any others in this sector. I would not be long these stocks going into Tuesday night. They have had a big run-up lately in anticipation of a Kerry win. In my opinion, it is a no win situation for these stocks now. If President Bush gets re-elected, these stocks will drop like a lead balloon. If Kerry wins, since they have already ran up, it will be a sell the news scenario. If you are holding these stocks, you maybe taking a big risk going into the election.
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