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Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Market Recap
Today was a big continuation rally for the markets with the Dow tacking on another triple digit gain. Adding to yesterday's +138 point gain was today's +113 point gain. The NASDAQ gained an amazing +41 points and the S&P was up +14 points. Even more importantly, these indices closed above major resistance levels: 10,000 for the Dow and 1960 for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ also closed above both its 200 SMA and above a major trend line shown in tonight's chart; this is also very good news. Still even more good news - the volume on the NASDAQ today was over 2 billion shares. This is the most shares it has traded to the upside in over six months, another very positive sign.
Oil Reserves
The markets were awash in positive reaction to falling oil prices today. I spoke about a possible oil bubble in recent days. I am not convinced that the bubble is ready to pop just yet, but it is certainly a good sign to see oil prices pulling back slightly rather than rising. It will take a lot more than one report on crude reserves to deal a knock out blow to high oil prices, but it is a start. Funny how this news comes out right after we see an article pumping up oil stocks yesterday. Housing numbers also came out today. While the analysts were predicting a loss, there was actually a gain. Between oil and housing, analysts are 0 for 2 today. They get paid for this? LOL, amazing!
Foul Play?
There have also been some very strange downgrades in recent days. The analysts are fully aware of the power of their voice. All they need to do is state that they do not like a stock and the stock takes a tumble. With earnings season out in full strength, the analysts are coming out with their predictions now, just before earnings are released. Why do they not wait to see what the companies report? If earnings are bad, then that is the time to downgrade the stock. If a company blows away the number, then upgrade the stock.
If they were really doing their job, they would already know what earnings are going to be because they have followed the company the whole quarter. I think many of them DO know, and that is the problem. They know exactly what earnings will be and if a company is going to miss the number, their job is to get their firm out of the stock before it collapses on earnings day so they upgrade the stock before earnings and sell into the strength. The opposite happens when they want in a stock. They will down grade the stock so their firm can scoop up all the cheap shares being sold by the public. There are some good analysts out there, but there are many that are not honest and it gives the whole industry a bad name.
Google reported about a week ago and missed the analysts' expectations by double digits. But, the analysts came out and slapped ridiculous price projections on the stock. The crowd just eats it up, and the stock takes off towards $200 even in light of what some would have considered to be rather negative results. These firms already own the stock so they want that stock to move higher. What better way to move it than slap a $250.00 price target on it?
If there were any uniformity in what the analysts can and cannot report, there would never be such wildly unexpected swings in stocks. There has been talk of leveling the playing field but there have been no results yet. Until something legally happens to change the securities laws there will never truly be a level playing field. I will get off the analyst bashing now. It seems this has been pick-on-the-analyst week in our commentary.
290 Points Decides the Election
In our commentary a couple of nights ago, we mentioned that a bounce was due and very possible since the market was over sold. I also mentioned that we needed to rally over 500 points if President Bush was going to be re-elected, a task that would be tough one but not impossible. There are three trading days left before the election and the Dow needs 290 points to get above where it was at the end of the republican convention. Three more days of triple digit gains will get the Dow there, but when was the last time we saw the Dow have triple digit gains five days in a row? I say again, this is a tough task ahead but not impossible. When was the last time we saw a baseball team lose four in a row? Can it happen again this week? It is a tough task ahead but not impossible. Go Cardinals!
OTC BB Watch List
- TRLG: Nice move today and still looking good.
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