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Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Market Recap
The price of oil was the top story again today, this time moving to the upside by $1.60 and at one point, topping $55.00 a barrel. The markets were mixed with the Dow down -10 points while the NASDAQ was up +10 points and the S&P traded flat. You cannot get any more neutral than that. With oil prices going up, the NASDAQ remains the strongest index and has been for the past couple of weeks. A couple nights ago I mentioned that I thought oil prices may just be pulling back slightly before moving up again. My short term target for oil prices was $60 a barrel and we are well on our way to meeting that target. If the price of oil does reach our target, I do not think the markets will be moving up anytime soon. Charts of the big three indices are in poor shape and they are indicating more possible downside. This would coincide with the price of oil. Remember the support levels identified yesterday: Dow 9750, NASDAQ 1900, and S&P 1100.
The internet giant EBAY had another good earning release after the bell and also raised their guidance. This internet monster never seems to disappoint the street come earnings time. They really have their act together and maybe that is why EBAY never corrected like all the other Dot.Bomb's in the internet bubble of the late 90's. Five years later, it is still running strong and performing well. It is by far the class of the sector and has proven itself over and over again. This should do wonders for the internet sector tomorrow and possibly most of technology. This is the leader of the group and by doing well it should raise all boats.
Ball Street?
There was a previous commentary using baseball as an analogy. Sports can often mirror many situations we face, and can be a poignant way of looking at things. We are right in the midst of the baseball playoffs, and the talking heads are writing articles suggesting that the Yankee/ Sad Sax series could be the reason the markets are sluggish these days. Sometimes these articles are just comic relief. I think this article fits into that category:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/19/news/funny/basebal...
The games have been very long by baseball standards. With Wall Street being situated not too far from Yankee Stadium, it is no wonder that Wall Street traders are watching the games. But really, attributing the action in the markets to a lack of sleep is a bit of a stretch. I would agree that there are brokers staying up late to watch the games but that has little to do with the action we are seeing in the markets this week. I am sure most who read the article did not take it seriously, but you would be surprised at how many people will actually believe it.
Death, Taxes and the Boston Red Sox
I made the following statement in a commentary at the beginning of this baseball season, “There are only three things in life that are guaranteed: death, taxes, and the Boston Red Sox never winning the World Series.” Some of you may remember.
Hmmm, I have been second guessing myself lately. With all the new technology, research, and miracle drugs out there these days, there is a chance that we may someday live forever. Taxes? Bill Gates is my write in vote for president. He could very easily eliminate our taxes. After all, he is the most generous person in the world and could pay all of our taxes for us instead of giving his money away to charities all the time. Taxes could go away if we elected him president. The Red Sox? Well, two out of three isn't bad. Game 7 is here, let's play ball!
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